Will 12-team CFP aid Kentucky football? 5 make-or-break games for Mark Stoops, Wildcats

LEXINGTON — At this point, Mark Stoops, entering his 12th season as Kentucky's football coach, has a minimum expectation for his team to attain bowl eligibility each year. And the Wildcats recently have done that as successfully as any program in the country.

UK has reached a bowl each of the last eight seasons.

Only eight other FBS teams can make that claim.

It's a list that includes:

• Georgia: 27 consecutive bowl berths

• Oklahoma: 25

• Wisconsin: 22

• Alabama: 20

• Clemson: 19

• Oklahoma State: 18

• Ohio State: 11

• Memphis: 8

That Kentucky finds itself alongside longtime conference titans Alabama and Georgia and other national powers (Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma) is notable.

Yet there's no mystery what separates those five schools from UK.

Every member of that quintet has appeared in the College Football Playoff at least three times. Kentucky, like so many other schools across the nation, still is seeking its first CFP bid. Perhaps the Wildcats' prayers will be answered this fall, with the playoff expanding from four teams to 12.

With eight more spots available than the four-team version that existed for 10 seasons (2014-23), there is now more margin for error for Kentucky — and every other team vying for those dozen coveted spots.

So, what is the Wildcats' path to a playoff bid? Which games can Stoops' club least afford to lose in 2024?

Going off the team's schedule this fall, UK easily should chalk up wins in nonconference outings against Murray State, Ohio and Southern Miss. The same goes for its SEC home tilt versus Vanderbilt. To feel comfortable securing an at-large bid in the CFP, however, Kentucky likely would need at least six more victories, giving it a 10-win regular season (and in this scenario, ceding losses to the two teams, on paper, that will be picked to finish atop the league: Georgia and Texas). Of UK's other six required wins, at least one — two would be better — should be on the road. Against a ranked foe. And it also means Kentucky must fend off Auburn, which went 6-7 last season in Year 1 of the Hugh Freeze era but still has dominated the all-time series with the Wildcats, owning a 27-6-1 advantage and winning the last nine meetings in Lexington.

All that in mind, here are the Wildcats' five most crucial games in 2024, ranked in order of importance:

1. South Carolina (Sept. 7)

Yes, this game has gotten spicier since Shane Beamer took over in Columbia, South Carolina. It started when Beamer took offense to comments uttered by Stoops at the 2023 SEC Media Days. It hasn't helped Stoops that Beamer has turned the tide in the rivalry, either. Stoops held a 6-2 record against South Carolina prior to Beamer's hire. But Stoops is only 1-2 against Beamer, with the Gamecocks winning back-to-back matchups in the series (2022 and 2023) for the first time since a three-game streak from 2011 through 2013.

While all of those reasons factor into why this game is Kentucky's most pivotal this fall, they aren't the deciding element.

It's because of the date.

It will be Game 2, and the SEC opener, for both squads. To have any hope of a special season, Kentucky must hold serve at home against South Carolina.

Lose here and UK likely is staring down an 0-3 start to SEC play, with its next two contests against Georgia and Ole Miss, respectively. That game against the Rebels is Sept. 28.

Setbacks in each of its first three SEC games would mean Kentucky's dreams of a memorable campaign would be over before the calendar even flipped to October.

2. Louisville (Nov. 30)

Even if both teams entered winless, there's always something on the line when the Governor's Cup rivals square off: in-state bragging rights.

But for the Wildcats, there's a bit more hanging in the balance this fall.

UK has topped U of L five straight times. That ties the longest streak by either team since the rivalry resumed in 1994; the Cardinals won five in a row from 2011 through 2015. A sixth straight Kentucky triumph would put it within one of its own record run in the series. It won the first seven meetings in the series — six games between 1912 and 1924, then the resumption battle in 1994.

While Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals won't lack for motivation this year, another matter hangs over this matchup like a dark cloud.

There's no guarantee the rivalry will continue into the next decade.

Though the SEC will remain at eight league games in 2024 and 2025, it's expected a nine-game conference slate will follow soon after. Perhaps as soon as 2026. With another SEC tussle to grapple with every year, is UK willing to keep Louisville on the schedule?

Savor these Governor's Cup games while they last.

3. at Florida (Oct. 19)

By the time Florida welcomes UK to town, it's possible the Gators could be 1-5.

That's simply how tough Florida's schedule is (theoretically).

Florida opens with Miami. After a breather against FCS foe Samford, Florida hosts Texas A&M, travels to Mississippi State and takes on Central Florida, now a member of the Big 12. And the week before Stoops' squad steps foot in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Florida has a road date with Tennessee.

And that's just the first half of the Gators' 2024 slate, with games against Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State following their matchup with UK. If third-year coach Billy Napier leads the Gators to a bowl, he'll have earned his money this season.

Still, he's unquestionably coaching for his job this fall after going 11-14 (6-10 SEC) the past two seasons. He's 0-2 against Stoops and the Wildcats.

This is a must-win game for UK, given where it falls in the schedule for Florida and how beat up the Gators might be.

Another Kentucky victory would extend its most fruitful run in the series since Bear Bryant still resided in Lexington. Bryant led UK to four straight wins over Florida from 1948 through 1951 — which remains the Wildcats' longest winning streak against the Gators. With a win over Florida this fall, Bryant's group will have some company in the UK record book.

4. at Ole Miss (Sept. 28)

Ole Miss begins this season, its fifth under coach Lane Kiffin, with legitimate playoff aspirations. Kiffin led the Rebels to a program-record 11 wins last season. More than a dozen starters return from that squad, highlighted by quarterback Jaxson Dart, a Heisman Trophy candidate. Despite losing star running back Quinshon Judkins to Ohio State, Ole Miss still made hay in the transfer portal, including a trio of intraconference additions (wide receiver Juice Wells from South Carolina and defensive linemen Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmielen, who arrived from Texas A&M and Florida, respectively).

Kiffin is one of the best offensive minds in the sport. Scoring points won't be a problem for the Rebels. The key is how much the defense improves under Pete Golding, starting Year 2 coordinating the unit. If the Ole Miss defense replicates last season — it allowed 22.1 points per game, which ranked fifth in the SEC — that might be enough to punch a ticket to the playoffs.

When Stoops' troops roll into town, the Rebels should be 4-0 (they start with Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern). Ole Miss should be ranked in the top 15 of the polls. Maybe even top 10.

A victory over the Rebels, on the road, would be a statement win for the Wildcats. And would go a long way toward impressing the playoff committee come the end of the season.

5. at Tennessee (Nov. 2)

Speaking of victories away from home, at the expense of a ranked opponent, Tennessee might provide another opportunity for UK in the final month of the regular season.

Whether the Volunteers are ranked or not, though, the Wildcats will take a win — any win — in this series.

Victories against UT rarely have been easy to come by for UK.

Stoops is only 2-9 versus the Vols. The Wildcats only have won four times in their last 40 tries. And the last time UK earned wins in consecutive seasons was 1976 and 1977.

All told, Tennessee owns a commanding 84-26-9 edge over UK.

With the elimination of divisions, the teams no longer will meet every season going forward.

A victory this fall would go a long way toward making 2024 a noteworthy season for Kentucky.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky football: 5 key games for Mark Stoops on 2024 schedule