7 things to watch for at tonight's debate: From the Politics Desk

The Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, we preview tonight's showdown between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Plus, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down why Pennsylvania could be the most critical battleground state.

Programming note: Stay tuned for a special edition of the From the Politics Desk newsletter tonight, where we will be recapping and analyzing the presidential debate.

The 90-minute showdown — hosted by ABC News and simulcast on NBC — is scheduled to start at 9 p.m. ET. Follow along with all the action on our live blog.

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7 things to watch for at tonight’s debate

Ahead of tonight’s debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump — the two candidates’ first meeting ever — seven NBC News staffers weighed in on one big thing they will be watching for:

Kristen Welker: How will the candidates address their vulnerabilities?

Tonight, I will be watching to see how each candidate addresses their biggest vulnerabilities on the issues. For Trump that’s abortion, and for Harris, it’s her pivots on some key policy positions. Read more →

Chuck Todd: Who are the candidates talking to?

One of the things I’ll be looking for is which voters each candidate goes out of their way to address directly. Every campaign has a theory about what coalition of voters they need to win. What’s striking is how both campaigns have the same challenges but, so far, appear to be going about their challenges differently. Read more →

Monica Alba: Can Harris produce a viral moment?

One of Harris’ biggest moments from her debate with then-Vice President Mike Pence in 2020 came in the form of a response when he interrupted an answer and she said several times: “I’m speaking.” It seemed to be something she had planned so we’ll be watching to see if there’s a similar response that she’s prepared in case Trump speaks over her, though the muting of the microphones presents an additional challenge in how that may play out in real time. Read more →

Garrett Haake: Can Trump stick to his campaign strategy?

Trump’s campaign has a well-defined and thoroughly prepared strategy tonight: define Harris as “dangerously liberal” and unfit to be president. Sound familiar? The challenge for the Trump campaign has long been for Trump, the candidate, to commit to this framework, one he has often appeared disinterested in. Read more →

Gabe Gutierrez: What does Harris say about immigration?

One thing to watch for is whether Harris continues her march to the center on immigration policy and how she communicates her more nuanced stance on building more of a border wall. Read more →

Jonathan Allen: How does Harris project strength?

Trump always tries to portray himself as the strongest of the candidates. He does it with his words and with his physical puffery. It’s a trait that matters to voters — they want to know that a leader will protect them, and perceived strength is part of that. The question is: What will Harris do to project strength against Trump? Read more →

Emma Barnett: Is there a handshake?

Something to watch for right at the beginning of the debate is whether Harris and Trump shake hands. A customary handshake to kick off a presidential debate is a way for candidates to set the tone and show mutual respect. But for the past three presidential cycles, shaking hands has not been a guarantee. Read more →

More pre-debate coverage from NBC News

Why Pennsylvania is so critical to both candidates’ path to victory

By Steve Kornacki

It’s fitting that tonight’s debate is taking place in Pennsylvania, because when it comes to the road to 270 electoral votes, the Keystone State is first among equals.

With 19 electoral votes, it is the biggest single prize among the seven core battleground states — which also include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. To offset fully the mathematical impact of a loss in Pennsylvania, each candidate would need to win at least two other battlegrounds.

There are ways for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to win the presidency without carrying Pennsylvania, but the paths would be narrow. Consider where the race stands right now. Leaving the battleground states aside, if every other state votes the way it did in 2020, Harris would start at 226 electoral votes while Trump would have 219.

Then, using the seven battleground states, there would be a total of 44 different state outcome combinations. 21 of those combinations (47.8%) would result in Trump reaching at least 270 electoral votes; 20 of them (45.4%) would put Harris at or over 270; and three (6.8%) would result in a tie.

Now, for the sake of this exercise, let’s say that Pennsylvania goes for Harris. That would boost her to 245 electoral votes and reduce the number of remaining state outcome combinations to 16. And 10 of those 16 remaining combinations (62.5%) would result in Harris hitting the 270 magic number; only six of those remaining combinations (37.5%) would give Trump at least 270. In other words, just winning Pennsylvania would leave Harris with a clear majority of the remaining paths to 270.

None of the other battleground states would reshape the playing field to this degree. Here is what share of the remaining state outcome combinations each candidate would be left with if Harris were to win any one of the battlegrounds:

[table]

It’s worth noting as well that a 269-269 Electoral College tie would almost certainly result in a Trump presidency. In that case, the House would pick the winner, with each state delegation receiving one vote. Even if they don’t end up controlling the chamber, Republicans are very likely to control the most delegations.

So if you add the tie combinations to the Trump column, it only amplifies the singular importance of Pennsylvania for Harris: win it and she’s got a leg up that no other battleground can provide. And that makes the state just as crucial for Trump. If he wins it, he denies Harris her clearest path to 270.


🗞️ Today’s top stories

  • <strong>👀 Shutdown watch:</strong> Despite mounting opposition from his own party, House Speaker Mike Johnson vowed to stay the course and bring his government funding package to the floor on Wednesday. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-republicans-plan-vote-government-shutdown-bill-trump-rcna170402">Read more →</a>

  • <strong>☑️ Fact check #1:</strong> Trump has been falsely claiming that children are undergoing transition-related surgery during their school day. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-politics-and-policy/trump-false-claims-schools-transgender-surgeries-rcna170217">Read more →</a>

  • <strong>☑️ Fact check #2:</strong> Local police in Ohio say they haven’t received credible reports of immigrants harming pets after JD Vance said “people have had their pets abducted and eaten by people who shouldn’t be in this country.” <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/misinformation/jd-vance-ohio-police-no-reports-haitian-immigrants-harming-pets-rcna170271">Read more →</a>

  • <strong>⚖️ Trump’s DOJ:</strong> Trump has become increasingly explicit in describing plans to use the Department of Justice to prosecute his political foes if elected. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/trump-vows-prosecute-political-foes-others-corrupt-cheaters-rcna169292">Read more →</a>

  • <strong>⚖️ Trump’s DOJ, cont.:</strong> The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta profiles Utah Sen. Mike Lee’s transformation from “Never Trumper” to outspoken voice in the MAGA movement — and potential future attorney general in a Trump administration. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/10/senator-mike-lee-trump-support/679565/">Read more →</a>

  • <strong>🗳️ Ballot battles:</strong> Missouri’s Supreme Court ruled that an amendment that would enshrine abortion access in the state constitution will appear on the November ballot. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/missouri-abortion-rights-ballot-measure-state-supreme-court-rcna170395">Read more →</a>

  • <strong>🗳️ Ballot battles, cont.:</strong> TheNorth Carolina Supreme Court ordered that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. must be removed from the state’s ballots, meaning they will need to be reprinted before election officials can start mailing them out. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-must-removed-north-carolina-ballots-state-supreme-court-rules-rcna170341">Read more →</a>

  • 🛑 <strong>Not so fast:</strong> Trump’s call for mandating free access to in vitro fertilization has drawn a mix of skepticism and outright opposition from congressional Republicans. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/donald-trump-plan-mandate-free-ivf-republicans-congress-opposition-rcna170327">Read more →</a>

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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