Bill Cotterell: Now comes the hard part for Democrats
The great political analyst Woody Allen once observed that “80% of success is showing up.”
By that measure, the Florida Democratic Party is off to a good start. But now comes the hard part.
The Democrats have been out of power in Florida since Jeb Bush won the governor’s office in 1998. Actually, the once-dominant Democrats started circling the drain six years earlier, when the 1992 elections left the state Senate knotted 20-20 and the parties took one-year turns presiding over the chamber.
Republicans won a Senate majority two years later, claimed the House in 1996, and Democrats have been more tolerated than listened to ever since.
Being the Rodney Dangerfields of Florida politics for so long, it’s understandable that Democrats would greet even a glimmer of hope — the faintest sign of life — with unrestrained joy and celebration. And when the candidate-qualifying deadline passed in mid-June, the Democrats had fielded a candidate for every legislative seat on this year’s ballot.
Every one of Florida’s congressional districts also will have a Democratic contender in November. The party was so delighted that Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison visited Tallahassee for a celebratory news conference with state Chairwoman Nikki Fried.
Even the mighty Republicans didn’t produce at least a token nominee for every seat. The GOP conceded 20 legislative races, but that’s more a symptom of its own gerrymandering than testament to any new-found strength among Democrats.
In redistricting every 10 years since 1992, Republicans have crammed as many Democrats as possible into as few districts as possible, complying with court orders and constitutional requirements for minority access while rigging the House, Senate, and congressional districts to assure GOP control.
It’s as if the Republicans had an unspoken rule of thumb — let’s craft one district where a Black Democrat can’t possibly lose, bordered by three or four tracts in which white Republicans could start forest fires and still win.
No denying that filling every slot on the ballot is nice. As the state lottery used to say, you must be in it to win it.
Once the giddy enjoyment wears off, though, certain political realities remain. Some of these fresh new Democratic faces will probably turn out to be — how to say it nicely? — nuts. So will some of the Republican nominees, but they’ll have money and momentum.
And not to take anything away from the Democrats’ achievement, but all the usual political indicators still favor the red team.
Look at recent history. Donald Trump carried Florida twice and probably will again. Gov. Ron DeSantis won re-election two years ago by receiving a shade under 60% of the vote, and all three Cabinet members were scarcely opposed. Even if the congressional delegation, the state House, and the Senate shed a Republican seat here and there, they’re in no danger of going Democratic.
Voter registration has been overwhelmingly Republican. So has the money trend. The Republican Party of Florida collected just under $3 million in the first quarter of this year, while the Democrats took in just over $500,000. Cash flow will remain lopsided for the parties and individual candidates all summer.
State Republican Chairman Evan Power didn’t sound terribly impressed by the Democrats’ full slate.
“Florida is a red state, it’s going to be a red state. We’re going to win in November, we’re going to win big,” he said in an interview with West Palm Beach station WPTV. “In 2020, Democrats had 100,000-voter advantage. We’re looking at a million-voter advantage by the time we go vote in November. If you look at the intensity out there, people are becoming Republicans at a strikingly high rate, and people are turning out and voting Republican at a high rate.”
At their news conference, Democrats said they expect a summer of hard work holding Republicans accountable for soaring property insurance rates, lack of affordable housing and “culture war” stuff like removing books from schools and combatting drag shows. Proposed constitutional amendments that seek to allow recreational marijuana and protect abortion access should also favor the party.
“We’re doing the work on the ground that is needed to break the super majority and elect Democrats up and down the ballot,” said Sen.-elect Carlos Guillermo Smith, an Orlando Democrat who won a Senate seat when he was unopposed as qualifying ended.
Even if that’s just a bit of bravado, it’s a good rallying cry for the coming campaign — sure beats, “Hey, look, we didn’t concede any races this time!”
Bill Cotterell is a retired Capitol reporter for United Press International and the Tallahassee Democrat. He writes a weekly column for The News Service of Florida and City & State Florida. He can be reached at wrcott43@aol.com.
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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Bill Cotterell: Now comes the hard part for Democrats
