As bird flu virus mutates and jumps to humans, the potential grows for another pandemic

A flu virus is identified by the two most important proteins on its surface called hemagglutinin and neuraminidase. The first has 18 varieties and the second has 11. They are designated respectively by H and N followed by a number for the variant.

As these viruses slightly mutate or “drift," they require annual updates of vaccines, but we still retain some passive immunity from previous exposures. Sometimes an entirely new flu virus enters the population for which we have little existing immunity. This is called a “shift” and has been responsible for all previous flu pandemics.

In 1996, a new bird flu called H5N1 was identified. It has killed millions of wild and domestic birds. Varieties have mutated as it has jumped from birds to cattle and finally to people. Person-to-person transmission is still rare, but if the virus further mutates to make this easy, there is the potential for a devastating pandemic.

The H1N1 flu pandemic of 1918 killed more than 50 million people over three years, or less than 3% of those infected. By comparison, of those infected with H5N1, more than half of them died.

H5N1 has a standard incubation period of about one to five days, but it could take as long as two weeks after exposure before symptoms appear. If, like COVID (caused by a different kind of virus called a corona virus), there was easy transmissibility during an asymptomatic period, a “community spread” might occur. This is where there is no clearly identifiable contact source for an individual’s infection. Without aggressive public health measures, the situation could quickly get out of hand.

Project BioShield was started under the W. Bush administration to protect against bioterrorism attacks or pandemics. It built on decades of research with flu, HIV/AIDS, and COVID giving us the ability to rapidly make large quantities of mRNA vaccines with high precision. By 2008 we had 40 million vaccine doses for H5N1 that would cover 20 million people with the two-dose regimen if needed, as well as a large stockpile of antiviral medication. But more needs to be done.

We could be monitoring wastewater for viruses more broadly and stocking up on more PPE. More cross-border cooperation would help us to head off this potential pandemic. More importantly, we all need to remember that we are still animals subject to severe pandemic infections with the potential to kill millions and disrupt human civilization.

Adequately funding the Vaccine Research Center as part of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases is not wasted government bureaucracy. It is our thin red, white and blue line.

William Culbert is a retired physician. He lives in Oak Ridge.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Pandemic prevention crucial as bird flu virus mutates and jumps to us