How does KU stop Baylor’s high-powered offense? Plus, prediction & betting odds

The No. 4 Kansas men’s basketball team will face the top-ranked 3-point shooting team in No. 13 Baylor on Saturday at Allen Fieldhouse.

For the Jayhawks (18-5, 6-4 Big 12), their 3-point defense has been a major weakness this season. Meanwhile, the Bears shoot 42.1% from deep.

“We’ve kind of struggled with the 3-point line in some other recent games, so it’ll definitely be one of the points of emphasis going into it, running them off the line (and) building a wall behind them trying to take care of some of their strengths,” KU forward Parker Braun said. “Three-point (shooting) is one of the things they do well. Hopefully Coach will give us a plan and we execute it pretty well,”

KU ranks No. 130 in the nation in opposing team 3-point percentage (32.9%), but in all of its conference losses, Kansas has allowed at least seven 3-pointers — West Virginia (12), Iowa State (14), Kansas State (9), and UCF (7).

For the Jayhawks, it’s been a bit of bad luck mixed with a defensive scheme that dares bad shooters to take shots. In those games — especially the Iowa State game — players who don’t traditionally make a lot of 3-pointers did just that, and it cost KU.

One of KU’s most significant issues has been its defense in late-in-the-shot-clock situations. It’s an area that Kansas coach Bill Self believes there can be improvement.

“I think in our situation, switching up, understanding the clock — there’s a shot clock on both ends, so if you’re guarding facing this way, you can see the shot clock,” Self said before KU’s win over Oklahoma State. “In certain situations, you don’t gamble, lunge, reach, don’t foul — you switch up, make them make an extra bounce.

“I mean, why would you let a guy get a shot off the catch if there’s 2 seconds left on the shot clock because in theory there’s some things like that that certainly we can do, but we haven’t been great this year in being really good in the latter seconds of the shot clock.”

Baylor can make the most of late-shot-clock situations as a team due to its excellent 3-point shooting.

Let’s examine what makes the Baylor offense so difficult to defend.

The threat of Baylor’s excellent 3-point shooting is always existent — four of the Bears’ starters shoot at least 33% from deep, so KU can’t leave anybody open as Texas Tech does here.

Baylor guard Langston Love drove toward the paint and immediately, two Texas Tech defenders converged upon him, leaving two shooters wide-open and a third player relatively open.

Langston finds Ja’Kobe Walter with a quick pass, who canned the 3-pointer before the Texas Tech defender could recover in time. One of the reasons this worked so well is that Love is always a threat to go to the rim — 30% of his shots are at the rim.

It’ll be wise for KU to let Hunter Dickinson defend the rim alone as much as possible, as that will allow the Jayhawks to stick on Baylor’s shooters and get into their air space.

Another potential solution is a 1-2-2 zone built for guarding a team of excellent shooters.. That’s a zone Kansas could use in doses if the Bears get hot from deep.

Game prediction

It’s challenging for opposing teams to win at Allen Fieldhouse in the Bill Self era, plus the Jayhawks are coming off a bad loss to rival K-State.

So, KU players know how important the game is to get back on track and how pivotal it is in the Big 12 conference race.

The key for the Jayhawks will be to limit Baylors’ 3-point makes to less than seven.

If it gets more than that, it’ll be difficult for Kansas to keep up — as KU ranks No. 328 in 3-point rate, so if the game becomes a shootout, the Jayhawks will be at a significant disadvantage.

Still, I think KU’s defense prevails and the Jayhawks win in a close one.

Kansas 72, Baylor 68

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Baylor (+6.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 15-6

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 11-10