Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania — and two bellwether PA counties — exclusive poll finds

WASHINGTON – Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris narrowly leads former President Donald Trump in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania and two of the state's key bellwether counties, according to a trio of exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls taken after last week's debate.

With 50 days until Election Day, Harris leads Trump, the Republican nominee, 49%-46% in Pennsylvania, a statewide poll of 500 likely Pennsylvania voters conducted from Wednesday to Sunday found. The results are within the poll's margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Pennsylvania is widely regarded as the most important battleground of the 2024 election, with both nominees' paths to 270 electoral votes severely hampered without carrying it. Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes are the most among the seven top swing states.

The poll found a wide gender gap that is benefiting the vice president. Harris leads female voters in Pennsylvania 56%-39%, while Trump tops male voters by a slimmer 53%-41%, according to the poll. Harris edged Trump among Pennsylvania's independent voters 43%-38%.

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Harris also enjoys higher personal popularity among likely Pennsylvania voters, with 49% having a favorable opinion of the vice president, compared with 47% with an unfavorable opinion. Forty-three percent of Pennsylvania's likely voters said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 54% had an unfavorable opinion.

"Besides the fact that she's totally qualified, she's decent and confident – and democracy is at stake," said Tanya Brown, a 55-year-old social worker from Norristown, Pennsylvania, who plans to vote for Harris. "I don't know if I can stomach another four years of this idiot," she said of Trump. "It's just the uncouthness. You're constantly on edge."

Harris ahead in Pennsylvania's Northampton, Erie counties, polls find

The polls were conducted in the days after the lone debate between Harris and Trump in the 2024 campaign. After Harris put Trump on defense throughout the 90-minute exchange, even many Republicans acknowledged the vice president outperformed Trump in the debate. Trump last week said he will not take part in another debate against Harris.

President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 over Trump by 1.2 percentage points, while Trump carried the commonwealth by less than 1 percentage point over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Along with Harris' statewide edge over Trump, she leads in Erie and Northampton counties – two bellwether counties that have historically predicted who carries the state – separate USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls of both found.

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Harris leads in Northampton County, which includes the cities of Easton and Bethlehem in East Pennsylvania, 50%-45% over Trump. Biden carried Northampton 50%-49% in the 2020 election. Trump carried Northampton 50%-46% over Clinton in 2016.

In Northwest Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump 48%-44% in Erie County, where Biden in 2020 won 50%-49% and Trump in 2016 won 49%-47%.

Three hundred likely voters were surveyed in both county polls, which have margins of error of 5.7 percentage points.

Helping drive Harris' advantage in Northampton – which boasts a Latino population that is 13% of the county's population – is the vice president's 60%-25% lead among Latino voters in the county. Yet the common denominator in both counties and Pennsylvania as a whole is Harris' dominance with female voters.

In Northampton, Harris leads female voters 55%-37% – an 18-point advantage that is greater than Harris' 17-point statewide lead with female voters. In Erie, Harris leads female voters by an even wider 55%-35% margin. Trump leads among male voters in Northampton 53%-44% and male voters in Erie 52%-42%.

"This is female-gender advantage on steroids," said Dave Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "In all three data sets, the women margin is around almost twice around Trump's edge among men."

Few undecided voters left

Harris, who would be the first female U.S. president if elected, has campaigned aggressively on restoring abortion rights following the Supreme Court's 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade and a constitutional right to an abortion.

In the statewide poll, abortion rights ranked as the most important issue for 11% of Pennsylvania's likely voters. The top issue for likely voters was inflation/economy at 35%, followed by immigration, at 14%, and "bringing the nation together," at 13%.

"I support Kamala Harris because I believe she's got her head on straight," said Kevin Adcroft, 62 an entrepreneur and real estate investor from Scranton, Pennsylvania. "Kamala has enough experience and is grounded enough that she would not put the country in danger. And I'm fearful that Trump could potentially do that."

More: Who won the debate? Harris' forceful performance rattles a defensive Trump.

Adcroft, an independent voter who leans Democratic, said abortion rights rank as his top issue. He said Harris seemed to "sidestep" a question in the debate about whether the economy is better today than four years ago, but he gave her strong marks overall. He laughed when Harris brought up Trump's campaign rallies and prompted the former president to talk extensively about crowd sizes.

"That was funny. I thought she did an outstanding job. Even her facial expressions and everything was like, 'Wow.' It was like being with a child," Adcroft said.

About 5% of the statewide poll respondents said they were still undecided. Less than 1% said they planned to back a third-party candidate. Onetime independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will not appear on the ballot in Pennsylvania after withdrawing from the race last month. Kennedy was not included as an option in the poll.

Jack Ross, 74, a part-time pastor from Abington Township, Pennsylvania, was undecided before the debate and is still undecided.

A Republican, Ross didn’t vote for Trump in the two previous elections; he voted for the libertarian candidate instead. He has no intention of voting for Trump now. “He’s worse than he was in 2020 and 2016 in terms of his just going off, his lack of self-control and some of the statements he has made,” Ross said.

Ross finds Harris’ tax-and-spending proposals “abominable." He also worries her shifting position on fracking – she now opposes a ban on fracking for natural gas – and other issues are just a case of saying one thing to get elected and doing whatever she wants once she’s in office.

“Am I going to hold my nose and gag as I'm voting for Harris or am I not going to vote for president?” he said. “I'm at that point right now.”

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Harris overcoming Republican gains in voter registration in Pennsylvania

Harris' narrow lead in Pennsylvania comes despite Republicans making significant recent headway to reduce Democrats' massive voter registration in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania today has 354,152 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, down from a voter registration advantage in 2020 that was 666,202.

In Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race – a contest critical to control of the upper chamber – incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads 47%-43% among likely voters against Republican challenger David McCormick, the statewide USA TODAY poll found.

Daniel Mason, 39, an independent voter from Lansdale, just outside of Philadelphia, was undecided on the presidential race but is leaning toward Trump after the debate.

Mason had hoped Harris “was going to come out and say what the hell she has really been doing over the last couple of years.”

But “it really seemed like she just kept saying, ‘Oh, we’re going to do this. We’re going to do this,’” he said. “Why haven’t you started any of this stuff?”

More: Donald Trump says he won't debate Kamala Harris again

Mason, a chef, said he thinks Trump’s business background could help him turn the economy around. “Our country is failing right there,” he said. “I am struggling myself. I had to pick up another job this year – the first time I’ve ever had two jobs in my whole life. It sucks, but it’s what I’ve got to do.”

Given its crucial status, Pennsylvania has become a recurring stop for both nominees on the 2024 campaign trail. Harris held rallies in Johnstown and Wilkes-Barre Pennsylvania on Friday, while Trump held a rally in Johnstown last month. Harris is set to visit Philadelphia on Tuesday for a "fireside chat" with the National Association of Black Journalists.

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Harris narrowly leads Trump in Pennsylvania, post-debate poll finds