Helene forecast: Florida is not getting out of this one. Prepare now for major hurricane

It’s happening again.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, soon-to-be Helene, is likely to become yet another Florida Gulf Coast hurricane landfall within a matter of days. While there remains uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast, Florida isn’t getting out of this one.

More damaging and less damaging outcomes are possible, but know that the Panhandle, Big Bend, and west-central Florida coasts are at serious risk of surge, wind, and rain impacts from a potential major hurricane landfall Thursday or Friday.

With some of the storm models painting truly scary scenarios, preparations to secure life and property should start now for these areas. Consider this your fire alarm.

Florida threat level increasing for soon-to-be Helene

As of mid-day Monday, the National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located just south of the Caymen Islands western Caribbean Sea.

For now, this system is a “potential tropical cyclone” rather than tropical depression or storm because it does not yet have a well-organized surface circulation, but that could happen at any point. Hurricane watches are in effect for the northwestern Caribbean, and will likely be required for portions of Florida on Tuesday.

With the potential storm still consolidating and entangled for another day with a broader Central American Gyre, a movement to the west or west-northwest is expected through Tuesday, followed by a turn north through the Yucatan Channel on Wednesday morning, by which point future Helene should be at or nearing hurricane intensity as it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Several key developments over the weekend have winnowed away some of the less threatening possibilities for how Helene plays out and increased the severity of the Florida threat.

The storm has organized on the quicker side of the possibilities, giving it more time to develop and strengthen prior to landfall. The system’s circulation is also coming together fully over water and should shoot the gap between the Yucatan peninsula the western Cuba, so land interaction is not going to tap the brakes either.

Instead, future Helene has about three and a half days to develop a core of deep convection and take advantage of a favorable thermodynamic and atmospheric environment for strengthening, which sets it up for potential rapid intensification on approach to Florida.

While Helene reaching major hurricane intensity is not certain, as with Michael, Idalia, and Ian before it, the warning signals are all there.

Here’s the first roadmap to forecast track and intensity expectations.

Helene track forecast: Following a channel

Helene’s track across the Gulf will follow south-to-north steering winds between high pressure aloft currently over Florida that will shift east into the western Atlantic, and an upper-level cutoff low moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday.

The storm will accelerate north or north-northeast as it embeds in this steering wind channel on Wednesday and Thursday, which will bring it to the Florida Gulf Coast no later than early Friday.

While there are subtleties to how quickly the cutoff low dives into the southern U.S., models are trending stronger with the offshore ridge, which should keep Helene moving north-northeast and prevent the kind of sharper hook to the northeast that Ian took across the Florida peninsula from occurring this time.

The potential storm does not yet have a clear, well-organized center of circulation, so we still don’t know exactly where Helene will drop into that steering channel.

If its center consolidates within the western part of that broad area of turning, the western or central Panhandle would be at higher risk of landfall; if it’s a bit farther east, that would shift the most likely track into the eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, or Nature Coast.

With the developing system still messy, it’s too early to put a fine point on where landfall will occur, but a general range between Tampa and Destin is most probable at this time. Most likely landfall timing is Thursday.

So: details TBD, but I am confident that Helene is coming to the Florida Gulf Coast.

Note that this is likely to be a larger-than-average hurricane, so while a landfall in Southwest Florida is not expected, wind, rain, and surge impacts are still likely there as well as throughout the eastern Gulf Coast as a whole.

Intensity forecast: A major rapid intensification threat

The real uncertainty is the intensity forecast.

Many aspects of the ocean and atmospheric environment Helene will be working with on Wednesday and Thursday bring to mind conditions preceding Michael, Ian, and Idalia, which means a landfall intensity of Category 3 or above is a strong possibility, as suggested by the NHC forecast.

Remember also that categories are defined only by maximum sustained winds, not by size, surge, or rainfall, so “category” in this case will underestimate the extent and severity of human impacts, even if Helene is a major hurricane.

There are two big questions regarding how strong Helene will get.

The first: how quickly does it wrap up over the next couple of days in the Caribbean? While the circulation remains broad and disorganized today, models are split on whether it takes until Tuesday or Wednesday for a core to manifest. If Helene is already a hurricane as it enters the Gulf Wednesday morning, it’s more likely to reach Category 3 or 4 strength crossing the eastern Gulf.

Unfortunately, Helene is poised to track over a warm ring of the Loop Current mid-to-late Wednesday, where the Gulf waters are as hot and deep as they have ever been. Upper-level outflow is also expected to be close to ideal at that time. Rapid intensification from Wednesday into early Thursday may steep, as signaled by our best hurricane models.

The second question comes down to whether the interaction between the upper low over the Mississippi Valley and the hurricane will be favorable or unfavorable on Thursday. This is a tough question.

If the strong upper-level winds associated with the cutoff low are a little farther away from the storm, it can act to enhance outflow and strengthen or sustain a storm into landfall, as with Michael; if they are a little closer, stronger shearing winds over the hurricane might cap or weaken it into landfall, as happening in Idalia’s final hours over water.

Strong enough, and that shear might even keep rapid intensification from happening at all on Wednesday, in which case a Category 1 or 2 storm would be a possibility.

Those details are beyond what can be predicted now with anything other than foolish confidence, with good models on both sides of the fence for now. In general, we want to see a slower consolidation of Helene’s circulation in the next day or so, and a closer approach of the upper low midweek to keep the lid on the storm.

We shall see.

Scary parallels to Hurricane Michael

I know the Michael comparison is in mind, and with cause.

The NHC forecast track and many of the individual model solutions floating around have scary parallels to Michael, the central Gulf waters are even warmer and deeper than what it crossed six years ago.

However, Michael was the meteorological equivalent of rolling snake eyes or flipping tails five or six consecutive times. I won’t say that isn’t a possibility here, but everything would have to go exactly wrong.

Of course, Helene doesn’t have to be literally Michael to have broad and severe impacts consistent with a major hurricane, and — stop me if you’ve heard this one — that is what the Florida Gulf Coast is probably going to get on Thursday.

Time to prepare is short, with bad weather likely arriving along the Gulf Coast as early as Wednesday afternoon. The storm is likely to spread major surge impacts across the Florida Gulf Coast even under less bad outcomes, including well south and east of the most probable landfall point somewhere in the Big Bend.

This includes Tampa Bay, where surge with Helene is a serious concern, even if it goes well to their west. Be prepared to evacuate if recommended to do so.

I’ll have much more tomorrow on the expected surge, wind, and rain impacts of Helene, but you need to start preparing now in the Panhandle, north-central Florida, and west-central Florida. Helene will come at you faster than you think, so go into hurricane mode now.

I hate to pull the fire alarm for the Gulf Coast yet again, but what I’m seeing warrants it. I’m hoping I’m wrong harder than anyone, but in case I’m not, get ready and keep watching the skies.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services, and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscription services. Visit weathertiger.com for more information. Email Truchelut at ryan@weathertiger.com

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Hurricane Helene forecast: Florida faces serious risks major storm