Will Kamala Harris, Tim Walz boost Democrats in close California congressional races?
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Will subbing Vice President Kamala Harris in for President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket boost Democrats in competitive California congressional races?
Yes, nonpartisan analysts said, if her campaign keeps its momentum going through November.
“The election has been upended from sea to shining sea,” said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of nonpartisan analyzer Inside Elections.
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California congressional contests will help decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the House of Representatives in 2025. Several of the states’ races are high priorities for national Democrats and Republicans in November, and some in the Central Valley are especially crucial.
It’s hard to tell whether Harris — a former San Francisco district attorney, California attorney general and U.S. senator — would have an extra effect on candidates in her home state. That may not matter so much as the general energy she’s infused into the party nationwide, said Erin Covey, an analyst at the nonpartisan election-forecasting Cook Political Report.
Ten California House races are on analysts’ watch lists.
Two of the most competitive congressional races in the nation are in the Central Valley’s 13th and 22nd Congressional Districts, with others mainly in Southern California. The 13th and 22nd feature rematches from 2022, the year when California helped secure a razor-thin House majority for Republicans.
Currently, there are 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats and three vacancies in the House. Two of those empty seats were held by Democrats, one by a Republican. The number for control of the chamber is 218, meaning Democrats need to flip four seats nationwide to win control of the House.
How the top of the tickets perform heavily affects downballot candidates, Rubashkin said, especially with the nationalization of local races and the decline of split-ticket voting, where someone picks candidates for separate offices from a different parties on the same ballot.
Biden had been trailing former President Donald Trump nationally and in key swing states whereas in a little over two weeks, Harris energized Democrats and donors, Rubashkin said.
“Harris’ ability to keep up the enthusiasm and keep up her ability to win over moderates and Independents is going to be crucial for these downballot candidates,” he said.
The Central Valley seats are “a little more working class where Democrats have kind of struggled particularly there in the past couple of election cycles,” Covey said. “I don’t know if she (Harris) has as much of a boost there as she does in places like LA and Orange County, which are a lot more suburban and have voters who are more likely to be excited by the change at the top of the ticket.”
The Democratic presidential candidate is a strong favorite to win California. The last time a Republican won the state was 1988, when former President George H. W. Bush prevailed.
Both Rubashkin and Covey were direct about whether a vice presidential candidate would have downballot effects: “No.”
Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate this week. Trump picked Ohio Sen. JD Vance.
“There’s a ton of data that shows that typically, vice presidential picks don’t have huge impacts on the outcome of the presidential race,” said Covey, “and that extends to these downballot races as well.”
These nonpartisan organizations and others, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball, rate competitive elections on a scale from “likely” to “leans” to “toss-up” for either party. Inside Elections also rates races as “tilts,” which are close to toss-ups.
Many analysts have not updated their ratings since Biden dropped out, waiting for more polling. Ratings will likely shift at least once between now and November.
Here are 10 California congressional races to watch, according to the experts, in numerical order. Not all the analysts agree on exactly how to rate each race, so the ratings below are a consensus of the three organizations.
3rd Congressional District
Likely Republican
Freshman Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Roseville, competes with Democrat Jessica Morse, a wildfire resiliency specialist, in November. The district stretches from the northern Sierra Nevada along the Nevada border into Death Valley.
“Kiley’s seat is trending left slowly,” Rubashkin said, but he doesn’t expect it to become closer this cycle.
9th Congressional District
Likely Democratic
Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, faces Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln. The San Joaquin County district centers around the Stockton.
“That’s one that I think Republicans are really bullish on, and I can definitely see that becoming more competitive,” Covey said.
Rubashkin said that Biden’s drag could have made the elections grow tougher for Harder in the 9th and for Democratic Rep. Mike Levin in California’s 49th Congressional District: “But with Harris at the top of the ticket, I think that they are both a little bit more comfortable.”
13th Congressional District
Toss-up
In 2022, farmer-turned-eventual freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, beat then-Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, by fewer than 600 votes. It was the second-closest U.S. House race in 2022.
The rematch is considered one of the most competitive races of 2024.
The district, which includes all of Merced County and chunks of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, would have voted for Biden in 2020 by 11 percentage points had current legislative maps been in place. It has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
“Anything that’s good for Democrats is going to have an outsized effect on Duarte simply because he’s the less-tested candidate,” Rubashkin said. Plus compared to other Republicans on the ballot in the 13th in 2022, Duarte underperformed, he said.
“He can also be more easily roped into the national Republican party because he hasn’t had as much time to show voters that he’s not like other Republicans,” Covey said of Duarte.
22nd Congressional District
Toss-up
Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, are also set for a November rematch.
The 22nd, which has more registered Democrats than Republicans and would have picked Biden by 13 points in 2020, includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties.
Both the 13th and 22nd, Latino-majority voting districts, tend to have very low turnout, meaning older, white, conservative voters disproportionately weigh in on elections there.
“Where I would kind of differentiate between the Valadao seat and the Duarte seat is that Valadao has demonstrated ability to win over Democratic voters,” Rubashkin said, adding Inside Elections rates this race as tilting in Valadao’s favor. “He is a survivor, and he’s been able to win elections when the top of the ticket is breaking against him.”
Valadao has been in the House since 2013, but he lost his seat in 2018 before winning it back in 2020.
27th Congressional District
Toss-up
Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, represents the northern Los Angeles County district and faces a new 2024 challenger: Democrat George Whitesides, former CEO of Virgin Galactic.
“Places like California’s 27th District, I think, which is a pretty diverse district where Biden was not doing well at all last month,” Covey said, “having her (Harris) there definitely rejuvenates the base.”
Since he entered Congress via a special election in 2020, Garcia has had the same challenger until this cycle: former Assemblywoman Christy Smith.
“He was very good at running against Christy Smith, but I think Whitesides presents a much different type of candidate for Democrats in that seat,” Rubashkin said.
40th Congressional District
Likely Republican
Rep. Young Kim, R-La Habra, who has represented this area since 2021, faces Democrat Joe Kerr, who served as an Orange County firefighter for over three decades.
The 40th holds parts of Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties.
41st Congressional District
Toss-up or leans Republican
Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, and Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, meet again in this Riverside County district this November.
The congressman, first sworn into office in 1993, had his closest House race in over a decade against Rollins in 2022, winning by less than 4 percentage points.
“This is a district that is moving in Democrats’ direction and it’s just a question of is this the moment,” Rubashkin said.
45th Congressional District
Leans Republican
Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Seal Beach, holds the 45th, which takes in parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. The two-term congresswoman will vie with Democrat Derek Tran, a lawyer.
47th Congressional District
Toss-up or leans Democratic
Republican Scott Baugh, an attorney who ran here in 2022 and was once the Republican leader in the California State Assembly, and State Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine, will battle in November to succeed Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine.
Porter is leaving the Orange County seat after a failed U.S. Senate bid.
“We have it rated as tilt Democratic,” Rubashkin said. “Candidly, I don’t know if it’ll remain that way for the duration of the cycle,” he added, saying that it would likely become more competitive.
“Dave Min has a lot of work to do in terms of replenishing his coffers and kind of moving on from the very bruising primary and obviously the DUI and all that entailed,” he said.
49th Congressional District
Likely Democratic
Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, and Republican Matt Gunderson, a business owner, are on the November ballot.
The 49th covers northern coastal areas of San Diego County. Levin has held congressional office since 2019.
