The Memo: Why Trump could change his mind on a second debate with Harris

Vice President Harris is ramping up her efforts to prod former President Trump into a second debate with her.

“I would like another debate,” Harris told reporters during brief remarks Sunday evening.

“There’s more to talk about,” she added. “Voters of America deserve to hear … what’s your plan, what’s my plan?”

It’s clear enough why Harris would want another debate, having been widely perceived to have won her first encounter with Trump on Sept. 10 in Philadelphia.

But would the former president go for a sequel?

He appears to have ruled out such a clash. His campaign aides point reporters toward a social media post from Sept. 12 in which he insisted, in all-caps, “There will be no third debate.”

But it’s not exactly unheard of for Trump to change his mind.

Some influential figures in Trump’s orbit are making the case for participating in a second debate.

One source close to Team Trump told this column he might be willing to take part if the clash were hosted by Fox News. This source argued the former president had previously braved “unfriendly territory” in the ABC News debate with Harris and in his June debate with President Biden, which was hosted by CNN.

But a Fox News debate is a scenario Harris seems unwilling to accept, even if the chosen moderators were among the less opinionated of the network’s hosts.

Still, the pro-Trump source contended the Harris campaign’s broader enthusiasm for a second debate was a sign of weakness rather than strength.

“Why do you think someone who is hiding from the media is wanting a second debate? It’s because their internal polling is clearly showing they have issues,” this person claimed. “The fact that they are now publicly pushing for a second debate is a big tell.”

Team Harris has a very different view, of course. In a Saturday statement accepting an offer of a CNN debate on Oct. 23, Harris campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said the vice president was eager to “show her command of the issues and why it’s time to turn the page on Donald Trump and chart a new way forward for America.”

Still, it is true that some polls show a higher number of voters want to hear more from Harris about her plans, whereas opinions about Trump are more settled. It’s also true that Trump has an advantage, across many surveys, on the pivotal issue of the economy.

To that extent, a second debate could benefit Harris.

The upside is not so clear for Trump, though some political insiders think he might end up having his hand forced by circumstances.

The key inducement for Trump agreeing to debate, hypothetically, would come if he were trailing in the polls a few weeks from now and needed to roll the dice in an effort to change the campaign’s trajectory before Election Day.

It could happen.

As of Monday evening, Harris was leading in the national polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) by 3.6 percentage points.

The vice president was leading by 5 points and 4 points, respectively, in an NBC News poll and a CBS News poll, both of which were released Sunday.

“She didn’t have the sort of momentum she has now” going into the first debate, GOP strategist Alex Conant told this column. “Now we see national polls showing her leading by several points. Trump might find himself in a situation where he has to debate.”

Conant made clear, however, that he believes Trump’s preference would be to hold fast to his refusal on a second debate, and that this would only change if he felt some degree of desperation.

Some independent voices agree with that assessment.

Aaron Kall, the director of debate at the University of Michigan as well as the editor and co-author of a book about Trump’s past debates, said he ultimately did not believe Trump would bow to pressure to debate Harris again.

“If there was another performance like the last one, it would be tough for Trump,” Kall said. “An additional poor performance could really be it. It would really risk his campaign.”

But, Kall added, “You just never know what’s happening in the polls. If it were very clear he was down both nationally and in a majority of the battleground states, I think the calculus would change. That would not be because he necessarily thinks he is favored. But if you’re behind, a debate can change the narrative.”

A CNN/SSRS instant poll of registered voters in the immediate aftermath of the first Harris-Trump clash saw 63 percent say the vice president performed better, while 37 percent favored Trump.

The debate was notable less for particular zingers on the part of Harris than for her success in getting under Trump’s skin. She goaded Trump about people leaving his rallies early, for example.

Trump also made some missteps, including acknowledging he had only “concepts of a plan,” rather than an actual plan, to replace the Affordable Care Act. He also made an unsupported claim about migrants eating people’s pets in Springfield, Ohio, which went viral.

Trump notably appeared in the postdebate “spin room” on that occasion — a decision that some saw as betraying a desire to distract from an underperformance on stage.

Among Democrats, meanwhile, there seems little belief that Trump will accede to a second debate.

“Obviously, [Harris] hopes to replicate the momentum of the first debate and throw him off his game,” Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky said. “But I ultimately don’t think he’s going to do it. Despite all of his bravado, I think he’s fundamentally scared of strong women.”

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

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