Mississippi State football vs Florida score prediction, scouting report in Week 4

STARKVILLE — It was obvious that Mississippi State football was heading for a rebuild when it fired coach Zach Arnett last season and hired Jeff Lebby.

After a 41-17 home loss to Toledo last week, the Bulldogs are 1-2, all but confirming that there probably won’t be any first-year Lebby magic. There are still a handful of winnable games, though.

Mississippi State begins SEC play this week with Florida (1-2, 0-1 SEC) visiting Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday (11 a.m., ESPN). The Gators are in their own troubles right now, with coach Billy Napier firmly on the hot seat. They have two double-digit home losses to Miami and Texas A&M this season and a 45-7 win versus Samford.

“Our focus is 100% on us in cleaning up the things that we can clean up, controlling what we can control,” Lebby said Monday.

Here’s a look inside the matchup.

Florida will play two quarterbacks vs Mississippi State football

Graham Mertz started Week 1 against Miami but was injured and didn’t play the following week. He and freshman DJ Lagway both played last week in a 33-20 loss to Texas A&M.

Lagway is a former five-star recruit. He was spectacular in his start against Samford, throwing for 456 yards and three touchdowns. But against Texas A&M, he had just 54 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

Mertz transferred from Wisconsin last season and has 45 career starts.

Napier said this week that both of them will play again.

“Having to prepare for both of them, there’s some challenge in that,” Lebby said “We’ve got to do a great job of making it really hard on them and not creating layups for them.”

Mississippi State needs a faster start

Mississippi State has been buried in the first half in the past two games. Against Arizona State, the Sun Devils raced to a 27-3 lead. Against Toledo, the Rockets were ahead 28-3 in the first half.

Erasing self-inflicted wounds like penalties and sacks would help.

“I think for us, that’s the biggest thing, is getting a first down,” quarterback Blake Shapen said Tuesday. “That’s our biggest deal. If we can get a first down, we’re rolling.”

Florida’s run defense hasn’t been good

Just like Mississippi State, Florida hasn’t been able to stop the run.

Texas A&M rushed for 310 yards last week, while Miami had 144.

That could be an opportunity for Mississippi State finally to establish an effective run game. The Bulldogs have used a three-man committee, and junior Johnnie Daniels has been the most impressive.

MORE: Mississippi State football injury report vs Florida: Who’s in and who’s out for Week 4

Mississippi State vs Florida score prediction

Florida 30, Mississippi State 24: It’s really difficult to pick MSU after what happened against Toledo. The offensive and defensive lines have been underwhelming in the nonconference schedule, and it’s hard to see big improvements coming with a step-up in competition.

Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at ssklar@gannett.com and follow him on X @sklarsam_.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State-Florida score prediction: Will Bulldogs beat Gators?