Central Valley Democrats slightly lead Republican incumbents in new tossup House race polls

Democratic challengers are narrowly leading Republican incumbents in polls published on Tuesday of tossup San Joaquin Valley congressional races.

The surveys indicate that turnout in these House of Representatives districts, which tend to have low voter engagement, will be key to who wins in November. The polls showed races were extremely close: Both were within the margin of error.

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These House races are two of the nation’s most competitive in 2024, nonpartisan analysts say. California’s 13th and 22nd Congressional Districts — located in the state’s politically purple, agricultural center — feature rematches from 2022. That year California results helped secure a razor-thin House majority for Republicans.

In California’s 22nd Congressional District, former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, led Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, by 4.2 percentage points, according to the new California Elections and Policy Polls.

In 2022, a quarter of likely voters did not vote in this newly-formed congressional district, according to the pollsters. In this poll, those new voters favored Salas.

Legislative districts were redrawn after the 2020 election to reflect census data.

In California’s 13th, former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, led freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, by 2 percentage points. New voters narrowly favoring Gray while returning 2022 voters slightly backed Duarte.

Undecided voters in the 13th and 22nd, if they were to vote today, slightly favored the GOP incumbents, according to the polls.

Researchers conducted polls in six House districts that nonpartisan election analysts predict could go either way in November, as well as two Bay Area ones that feature Democrat-versus-Democrat races.

The eight polls of likely voters were conducted from Sept. 14 to 21. The polls, conducted in eight separate districts, each had their own sample size and margin of error. The polls were conducted by researchers at the University of Southern California, California State University, Long Beach, and Cal Poly Pomona.

The polls also showed Republican incumbents in most of these close districts faring better than former President Donald Trump, the GOP’s presidential nominee, and Republican Senate candidate Steve Garvey among likely voters.

California has several of the most competitive 2024 races that are crucial to deciding who wins control of the House. Democrats would need to flip four seats nationwide to gain a majority.

Farmer-turned-freshman Duarte beat Gray by 564 votes in California’s 13th in 2022, one of the closest House races that year. The district, which includes all of Merced County and chunks of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

It would have voted for President Joe Biden over Trump in 2020 by 11 percentage points had current congressional maps been in place.

In California’s 22nd, Valadao beat Salas by 3 percentage points in 2022. The 22nd, which also has more registered Democrats than Republicans and would have picked Biden by 13 percentage points in 2020, includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties.

Both the 13th and 22nd are Latino-majority voting-age districts.

Compared to other California districts, each tends to have low turnout, meaning older, white, conservative voters disproportionately influence elections there. This trend has historically been true even in November presidential elections, when turnout is typically at its best here.