Chiefs-Chargers prediction: What KC must do to overcome Los Angeles’ biggest strength

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday in Inglewood, California.

Here are the game details:

Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City, Channel 12 in Wichita)

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: Chiefs by 7.

Chiefs-Chargers game prediction

We can’t go too far into the analysis without discussing the players the Chargers won’t have Sunday.

Left tackle Rashawn Slater and defensive end Joey Bosa are both out with injuries. Those are two major blows, as Pro Football Focus (PFF) has those two graded as the team’s best players on offense and defense, respectively.

LA has other issues as well. Right tackle Joe Alt — the team’s second-best offensive player, per PFF — didn’t practice all week and is questionable with a knee injury. No position in sports is more important than quarterback, and Justin Herbert is questionable, too, with a bum ankle.

Add in that safety Derwin James — one of Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce’s greatest nemeses over the years — will be out with suspension, and it’s not an ideal position for the Chargers to be in against their top AFC West foe.

Here’s the good news for the Chargers, though: The greatest strength of their team will remain mostly intact.

The team is ranked second in the NFL in coverage grade per PFF, with cornerback Kristian Fulton especially standing out while allowing just 19 yards this season on 10 targets his way.

Edge rusher Khalil Mack also has had a resurgent start to the season, contributing three sacks while also impressing with his early run defense.

Add it all up, and the advanced numbers love the Chargers on that end. The all-encompassing DVOA metric ranks the Chargers third in both overall and pass defense — an impressive start considering LA was mired in the mid-20s in both categories a season ago.

What we know about the NFL through numerous studies, though, is this: Good offense beats good defense ... because the former has more control over what happens.

And the Chiefs, to me, seem like a team that’s a couple tweaks away from breaking out there.

KC had plenty of down-to-down success last week against Atlanta but struggled in short yardage and the red zone. Those areas tend to be more fluky than most, meaning a one-week turnaround shouldn’t be considered surprising if it takes place.

Patrick Mahomes also has admitted he’s been a tick off lately with his timing and accuracy. Based on his history, we should expect improvement there, and it’s another reason to think this week might look better than last in terms of offensive proficiency.

The Chargers offense is likely to struggle for long periods. The QB uncertainty doesn’t help, and the team doesn’t block well enough yet to deliver on the run-first mentality that first-year coach Jim Harbaugh no doubt wants to establish.

It’s worth noting that a seven-point spread is a lot in the NFL, especially for a road team to cover like the Chiefs. And recent games between these two teams have tended to be close, regardless of the personnel available or stakes.

I still just see a Chiefs offense on the verge of breaking out if it can get past tiny, correctable mistakes that shouldn’t haunt the team for the duration of the season.

KC will face a good defense on Sunday, but I see Mahomes and the offense overcoming that with their cleanest performance of the season.

Give me the Chiefs for the win and cover, with KC showing a higher offensive ceiling than it did the previous two weeks.

Chiefs 31, Chargers 17

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 30, Falcons 21 (Actual: Chiefs 22-17) ✔️

2024 record vs. spread: 3-0

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 28-16 (64%)