Cost of living, abortion and border security shape the fight for House control

The opening arguments in the closely fought battle for the House are heavy on the cost of living, abortion and the U.S.-Mexico border, with those issues dominating the TV airwaves — and Donald Trump and Kamala Harris going largely unmentioned — as those down-ballot campaigns heat up.

A number of campaigns and outside groups launched new TV ads Tuesday in the country’s most competitive House districts, kicking off the two-month sprint to Election Day. While the presidential campaign has been raging for months, fueled by tsunamis of online donations on both sides, many House campaigns save their resources for the final stretch before unloading their money on the issues that they most want to highlight.

Democrats need to net just four seats to take over the chamber, while Republicans are eager to expand a thin majority, and the fight for the House will help determine if the next president will face a combative or cooperative Congress as they seek to address those key issues.

But the presidential race and the party leaders barely came up over the last week as House candidates in both parties look to define themselves separately from the top of the ticket and focus on key issues.

An NBC News analysis of nearly 150 broadcast TV ads that aired over the last week in the 44 most competitive House districts identified by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter found no Democratic ads name-checked Trump and just four GOP ads directly referenced or showed Harris.

The plurality of TV ads instead focused on candidates’ biographies, as the contenders look to introduce themselves to voters.

For some, that involves going to great lengths — or heights — to boost their name identification. Pennsylvania Republican Rob Bresnahan, for example, stood in an electrician bucket atop some power lines, stressing his background as an electrical contractor as he prepares to take on Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright. Nebraska Democrat Tony Vargas took to the basketball court to try to score some points with voters, while GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans of Virginia hit the road to stress that she is figuratively, and literally, running.

Along with bio spots and ads stressing bipartisan bona fides, the opening messages in the fight for the House focused on issues that voters often list as their top concerns in the 2024 election: the cost of living, abortion and the border.

While both parties are focused on the cost of living, ads focused on abortion and border security have fallen along party lines.

Democrats have gone on offense on abortion and reproductive rights, and just two Republicans launched ads over the last week on those issues. While Republicans have launched attacks on border security, more Democrats have responded to those missives, with about 20% of Democratic ads mentioning the issue.

Over the last week, Democratic campaigns, outside groups and party committees launched nearly twice as many TV ads as Republicans — a likely product of the cash advantage Democrats have built throughout the election cycle.

But both parties are gearing up for an expensive fight ahead, with Democrats so far reserving $284 million in House races from Tuesday through Election Day, and Republicans reserving $186 million, with more to come.

Cost of living

The high cost of living remains top of mind for voters, and the issue has been dominating House races, with nearly a quarter of ads referencing the issue. Around 40% of recent GOP ads have focused on cost of living, compared with around 16% of Democratic spots. Republicans view this issue as a salient one for the party up and down the ballot, with voters in recent polling giving Trump higher marks on the economy than Harris.

An ad launched Tuesday from both the National Republican Congressional Committee and Republican Mayra Flores in Texas’ 34th District features Texans saying, “The Washington Democrats are killing us. Everything is more expensive — eggs, beef and even cilantro.”

Workers for America’s Future, an outside group supporting Flores’ opponent, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, launched its own ad on the issue, arguing that Gonzalez has been “working to lower costs for families by putting paychecks and our economy first.”

Thorny issues

Democrats, meanwhile, are going on offense on abortion access, echoing a key argument from the Harris campaign. Abortion was the top issue across Democratic spots, referenced in 30% of the party’s ads in the last week. That’s thanks in part to more than a dozen ads launched Tuesday by House Majority PAC, the top Democratic super PAC involved in House races. All but two focused on abortion.

One spot in Michigan’s 8th District underscored the challenge facing Democrats as they look to make a case on abortion in a state where the procedure is already protected.

“Michigan already voted to protect abortion rights,” a narrator notes in the ad. “But that won’t stop extremist Paul Junge. Junge wants to ban abortion with no exception for rape or incest.”

At least one Republican tried to respond directly to attacks on the issue in the last week. GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro of New York aired an ad where he looked directly into the camera and said: “Let me tell you exactly where I stand on the important issue of reproductive care. I believe health decisions should be made between a woman and her doctor, not Washington,” adding that he supports access to in vitro fertilization and birth control and opposes a federal ban on abortion.

Democrats, though, have been targeting Molinaro on the issue. Democrat Josh Riley launched his own ad highlighting Molinaro’s past votes to make the case that Molinaro does not actually support access to abortion and would support a federal ban.

Republicans are looking to go on offense on concerns about illegal immigration and the state of the U.S.-Mexico border, a key issue for Trump’s campaign as well. Border issues were among the most mentioned aside from cost of living and candidate biographies in GOP ads.

American Action Network, the nonprofit arm of the GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund, had a slew of ads targeting Democrats on the border over the last week. In one spot in New Mexico’s 2nd District, the group targeted Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez, arguing that the border crisis is “spilling crime into New Mexico” and the congressman is “blocking solutions.”

But Democrats are trying to answer back on the border in some places, with nearly 20% of Democratic ads also referencing the issue.

House Majority Forward, House Majority PAC's nonprofit arm, also had a spot defending Vasquez on the issue, featuring a local sheriff who touted Vasquez’s support for a government funding package that called for additional border agents.