Who has the edge? Breaking down New Mexico-Montana State by position
Aug. 23—A position-by-position look at who has the edge as New Mexico opens their season against Montana State:
Quarterback
Montana State
Projected starter: Tommy Mellott, Sr.
Backup: Jordan Reed, So.
New Mexico
Projected starter: Devon Dampier, So.
Backup: Isaiah Chavez, R-Sr.
Analysis: If there's one name you need to know heading into Saturday's game, it's Tommy Mellott. Because the Bobcats might not have a more dynamic talent than the senior quarterback from Butte, Montana, one who rose to prominence by leading the Bobcats to the 2021 FCS title game — after replacing injured starter Matthew McKay in the first round of the playoffs, no less.
Mellott's battled injuries and split time with other quarterbacks since, but has produced nonetheless. Rotating with Sean Chambers last season, Mellott completed 75 of 119 passes for 1,068 yards and nine touchdowns last season. He also finished second on the team in rushing (690 yards, five touchdowns) with a quickness that pops off the screen.
Montana State's coaching staff have said they'd like to be a little more balanced this season, and don't necessarily want to rely on Mellott to run it — but on the road, trying to notch an FBS win for the first time in 18 years, I think they might do whatever they have to to get the job done. Corralling Mellott is far from impossible, but it figures to be a major chore for UNM.
Advantage: None of that is to ignore the buzz around sophomore Devon Dampier — coaches and players alike are high on what he's done and can do in first full season as the unquestioned starter. Mellott's a proven starter at this point, though, and that experience represents an advantage. Montana State
Offensive line
Montana State
Projected starters: Conner Moore, So. (LT), JT Reed, Sr. OR Burke Mastel, Fr. (LG), Cole Sain, Grad. (C ), Marcus Wehr, Sr. (RG), Titan Fleischmann, So. (RT)
Backups: Cedric Jefferson, Fr. (LT), Jaden Perkins, So. OR Aiden Kaplan, Fr. (C ), Everett Carr, Fr. (RG), Samora Ezekiel, So. (RT)
New Mexico
Projected starters: Wallace Unamba, Jr. (LT), Baraka Beckett, Sr. (LG), Jawaun Singletary, Sr. (C), Richard Pearce, Jr. (RG), McKenzie Agnello, Jr. (RT)
Backups: Tevin Shaw, R-So. (RT), Lajuan Owens, R-Fr. (RG), Malik Aliane, So. (C ), James Bailey, So. (RG), Elvin Harris, Fr. (RT)
Analysis: If Montana State has one position that might be a little more concerning than usual, it's the offensive line. Head coach Brent Vigen confirmed earlier this week that All-Big Sky starting center Justice Perkins is out against UNM, and will be replaced by graduate student guard Cole Sain. The "or" between JT Reed and Burke Mastel isn't indicative of a battle to start at left guard, either — Reed, who earned third team All-Big Sky honors in 2022, could be out due to a hand injury.
That said, the prior experience players such as Reed bring to the table helps alleviate the loss of two guards (Rush Reimer and Omar Aigbedion) that helped key one of the best offenses in FCS last season.
Advantage: At full strength, this would be a clear advantage for Montana State. But even with some questions, the Bobcats' offensive line is far more of a known quantity than what UNM brings. Montana State
Running backs
Montana State
Projected starter: Scottre Humphrey, So.
Backup: Adam Jones, R-Fr.
New Mexico
Projected starters: Eli Sanders, Jr. OR Na'Quari Rogers, Jr. OR Andrew Henry, R-Sr.
Analysis: Another notable absence here for Montana State: senior running back Julius Davis, the Bobcats' leading rusher. Davis, a Wisconsin transfer, rushed for 722 yards and six touchdowns last season as Montana State averaged a whopping 291 yards on the ground — the second-best mark in FCS.
Will Davis' absence make that much of a difference? Probably not. Not only did sophomore Scottre Humphrey finish fifth on the team in rushing (433 yards, eight touchdowns) last season, but the Bobcats return sophomore Jared White (524 yards, four touchdowns) and fifth-year senior Elijah Elliott (272 yards, two touchdowns). Redshirt freshmen Adam Jones and Colson Coon are also in line to contribute.
UNM's running back room might represent the team's deepest, most versatile position. If I had to guess who walks away with the most carries against Montana State, I'd take junior Eli Sanders — but that's all it is, a guess. Be sure to also look out for Na'Quari Rogers, a Campbell transfer who's stock has steadily risen all summer.
Advantage: If the front performs and backs stay healthy, UNM's strength this season very well could be its rushing attack. The Bobcats have long had an incredible ground game, though, and that's more than enough for a nod. Montana State
Wide receivers
Montana State
Projected starters: Ty McCullouch, Sr. (Z), Lonyatta Alexander, Jr. (X), Taco Dowler, So. (H)
Backups: Aidan Garrigan, Jr. (Z), Javonte King, Fr. (X), Jacob Trimble, So. (H)
New Mexico
Projected starters: Nic Trujillo, So. OR Caleb Medford, Jr., Luke Wysong, R-Jr. (Y), Shawn Miller, So. OR Ryan Davis, R-Sr. (Z)
Backups: Javen Jacobs, So. (Y)
Analysis: Ty McCullough is key for the Bobcats after catching 25 passes for a team-high 473 yards last season. But I'm curious to see junior Lonyatta Alexander Jr. The former Arizona State and Washington receiver had to sit out last season due to transfer rules, and brings a big frame, high-end speed and a strong recruiting pedigree. Sophomore Taco Dowler is expected to be a key contributor out of the slot after missing time with injuries last season; I wouldn't be surprised to see sophomore Jacob Trimble get some good run.
The UNM wide receiver to pay the most attention to is sophomore Nic Trujillo, listed as a co-starter with junior Caleb Medford (team-high 551 receiving yards last season). Trujillo, a Cleveland High graduate, didn't catch a pass last season, but has surged up the depth chart following a strong offseason.
Advantage: Without knowing Alexander's full capabilities in this offense, I think UNM's still poised to put the best receiver on the field in Medford. That, and a shade more depth, gives the Lobos a slim edge. New Mexico
Tight ends
Montana State
Projected starters: Ryan Lonergan, Jr. (TE), Rohan Jones, Jr. (FB)
Backups: Hunter Provience, So. (TE), Max Murphy, Fr. (FB)
New Mexico
Projected starter: Trace Bruckler, R-Jr.
Backup: Everett Hunter, Jr.
Analysis: Montana State lists 13 positions on their two-deep, with both junior Rohan Jones and sophomore Max Murphy as fullbacks. It's actually more of a second tight end than a traditional fullback, so it's listed here instead of with the running backs.
Advantage: UNM redshirt junior Trace Bruckler will continue to get the majority of snaps at the top of a room that's longer on potential than it is meaningful game experience. The addition of Jones, a Maine transfer, swings this one in the Bobcats' direction. Montana State
Defensive line
Montana State
Projected starters: Brody Grebe, Sr. (rush), Blake Schmidt, Sr. (NT), Alec Eckert, So. (DT), Kenneth Eiden IV, Jr. (end)
Backups: Zac Crews, So. (rush), Paul Brott, Jr. (NT), Zack Black, So. (DT), Hunter Parsons, Jr. (end)
New Mexico
Projected starters: Kyler Drake, R-Sr. (DT), Tyler Kiehne, R-Jr. (DT), Okiki Olorunfunmi, Sr. (end)
Backups: Bryce Santana, R-Sr. (DT), Garrison Walker, R-Sr. OR Devin Brandt-Epps, Sr. (DT), Max Elkman, R-So. OR Antoineo Harris Jr., Sr. (end)
Analysis: He's 6-foot-3, 250 pounds and a reigning All-American off the edge: senior defensive end Brody Grebe. The Melstone, Montana native broke out for 50 total tackles and 9.5 sacks last year, becoming one of the most feared Big Sky pass rushers and a potential NFL prospect.
Kenneth Eiden IV (20 tackles, five sacks last season) is no slouch either. Montana State did, however, lose defensive tackle Sebastian Valdez (40 total tackles, five sacks last season) after he transferred to Washington; sophomore Washington State transfer Alex Eckert is expected to step up in Valdez's absence. Senior Blake Schmidt is also back as the starting nose tackle after making 17 tackles and two sacks last season.
UNM returns a wealth of experience on the interior defensive line to stand up against Montana State's rushing attack, but will rely on a redshirt senior edge rusher Gabriel Lopez (listed among linebackers) and a physically imposing, if unproven, senior in Okiki Olorunfunmi to help pressure Mellott.
Advantage: When you have an All-American at any level, you have an edge. Montana State
Linebackers
Montana State
Projected starters: Danny Uluilakepa, Sr. (Mike), McCade O'Reilly, Sr. (Will)
Backups: Neil Daily, So. (Mike), Bryce Grebe, Fr. (Will)
New Mexico
Projected starters: Jayden Wilson, So. (Mike), Gabriel Lopez, R-Sr. (Will), Dimitri Johnson, Sr. OR Randolph Kpai, R-Jr. (Buck)
Backups: Tirek Austin-Cave, R-Sr. (Mike), Moso Tuitele, So. (Will), Mihalis Santorineos, Jr. (Buck)
Analysis: Montana State lost last season's leading tackler in Nolan Askelson and returns seniors Danny Uluilakepa (59 total tackles last season) and McCade O'Reilly (70 total tackles) in the middle third. Neither are quite the player Askelson was, but they're reliable quantities.
On the flip side, UNM lost last season's leading tackler in Alec Marenco but answered lingering questions from the spring about its linebacker depth by adding redshirt junior Randolph Kpai and redshirt senior Tirek Austin-Cave. A Nebraska transfer, Kpai played his way into a co-starting role with senior Dimitri Johnson; UNM's entire linebacker rotation will be fascinating, but how the Kpai-Johnson tandem is managed might be the most intriguing thing to watch.
Advantage: Experience sways this one in the Bobcats' direction. Montana State
Secondary
Montana State
Projected starters: Miles Jackson, Sr. (nickel) OR Caden Dowler, So. (nickel), Simeon Woodard, Sr. OR Andrew Powdrell, So. (CB), Rylan Ortt, Sr. (SS), Blake Stillwell, Jr. (FS), Jon Johnson, Sr. (CB)
Backups: Brock Steel, So. (SS), Tyson Pottenger, Jr. (FS), Takhari Carr, So. (CB)
New Mexico
Projected starters: Bryson Taylor, Jr. (FCB), Christian Ellis, Jr. (FS), Noah Avinger, Jr. (BS), Noa Pola-Gates, Sr. (BCB), Bobby Arnold III, So. (nickel)
Backups: Nigel Williams, Sr. OR Ishmael Az-Zahir, R-Sr. (FCB), Dereck Moore, So. OR Dominic Tatum, R-Sr. (FS), David Murphy, R-So. (BS), Jahvante Royal, Sr. OR Pierre Kemeni, Sr. (BCB), Cam Watts, R-Sr. OR Nigel Williams, Sr. (nickel)
Analysis: Junior Blake Stillwell, a New Mexico Military Institute transfer, is filling in for junior Dru Polidore, Montana State's usual starter at free safety. Stillwell isn't a great tackler, but he gets in on a ton of plays and benefits from playing alongside senior Rylan Ortt (74 total tackles, three interceptions last season), arguably the Bobcats' most impressive player in the back third.
Caden Dowler is taking on an expanded role at nickel and might get a few reps at free safety after battling injuries last season. All the corners, however, are back with plenty of experience under their belts.
Advantage: UNM's reset secondary is alluring — but, like many things, they're still a relative unknown. The presence of Ortt, a bona fide playmaker, gives the edge to the Bobcats. Montana State
