Emmys 2024 predictions: Who will win, and who should win, from The Bear to Baby Reindeer
Do not scratch your eyes or start tearing up your calendar: it really is time for the Emmys again already.
The illustrious awards show, sometimes billed as television’s equivalent of the Academy Awards, is back for the second time within the space of nine months, after the writers’ and actors’ strikes delayed last year’s ceremony until January 2024.
This year’s crop of frontrunners includes Chicago-set restaurant dramedy The Bear, which took home major prizes back in January, historical Japan-set drama Shōgun, and Baby Reindeer, the controversial Netflix miniseries created by comedian Richard Gadd.
In order to qualify for the awards, shows must have aired in the US between 1 June 2023 and 31 May 2024. In the case of The Bear, this means that it is being judged on its second season, not its most recent third, which debuted back in June.
In the comedy categories, The Bear is up against school faculty sitcom Abbott Elementary, generation-gap comedy Hacks and Hulu’s starry mystery comedy Only Murders in the Building, among others.
The drama brackets, meanwhile, see Shōgun vie against shows such as royal drama The Crown, fizzy spy reboot Mr & Mrs Smith, and Prime Video’s hit video-game adaptation Fallout.
Anthology heavyweights Fargo and True Detective are among the series placed in the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, alongside the much-discussed Baby Reindeer.
Based on Gadd’s own experiences as the victim of a stalker, Baby Reindeer drew fervent praise for its nuanced exploration of trauma, though was criticised by some for its merging of truth and fiction. A woman claiming to have inspired the character of Martha, the stalker in the series, is currently suing Netflix for defamation.
See below for our breakdown of the contenders in this year’s biggest Emmys categories, including who will win – and who deserves to.
Outstanding Drama Series
Shōgun (FX)
The Crown (Netflix)
The Gilded Age (HBO)
3 Body Problem (Netflix)
Will win: Shōgun
Should win: Shōgun
Shōgun’s sweep of the Creative Arts Emmys earlier this month has cemented its chances of being crowned best drama. The epic, handsomely made period saga, which at this point feels like a worthier successor to Game of Thrones than GoT spin-off House of the Dragon, wouldn’t just be a deserving winner, it’d also be a historic one, becoming the category’s first ever non-English language winner (it’s only the second such show to be nominated here, following in the footsteps of Squid Game). In previous years, The Crown would have been the one to beat, but the finale felt like a drawn-out damp squib.
Outstanding Comedy
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
The Bear (FX)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Hacks (Max)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Reservation Dogs (FX)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
Will win: The Bear
Should win: The Bear
An unusually strong comedy line-up this year features an embarrassment of riches, from the scalpel-sharp showbiz comedy Hacks, to the final season of Larry David’s groundbreaking, taboo-busting Curb Your Enthusiasm. Despite some fierce competition, punchy culinary dramedy The Bear looks set to take home the award for its second season – and, even though some will surely grouse about the series being less a comedy than a fraught drama (which it is), it will still be richly deserved.
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Fargo (FX)
Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+)
Ripley (Netflix)
True Detective: Night Country (HBO)
Will win: Baby Reindeer
Should win: Ripley
This time last year, no one would’ve predicted that an adaptation of a Scottish comedian’s stage show would have ended up as one of 2024’s most talked-about TV series and made headlines around the world (for better and worse). But that’s exactly the trajectory that Richard Gadd’s Baby Reindeer has enjoyed, and right now it feels like a dead cert for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series; the controversies around its “real life” story have only boosted its profile and kept it in viewers’ and voters’ minds. Still, I’d like to see some awards love for Ripley, a real slow burn of a show that didn’t fall into the trap of aping the beloved Anthony Minghella film adaptation and instead carved out its own thrilling path.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Idris Elba – Hijack as Sam Nelson (Apple TV+)
Donald Glover – Mr & Mrs Smith as John Smith / Michael (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins – Fallout as The Ghoul / Cooper Howard (Prime Video)
Gary Oldman – Slow Horses as Jackson Lamb (Apple TV+)
Hiroyuki Sanada – Shōgun as Lord Yoshii Toranaga (FX)
Dominic West – The Crown as Charles, Prince of Wales (Netflix)
Will win: Hiroyuki Sanada
Should win: Walton Goggins
This year’s Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series category is a bit of an odd stylish hodge-podge. Oldman and West are in the running for the most traditional fare – spy drama Slow Horses and royal-focused The Crown, respectively – while the rest of the nods go towards less conventional performances in genre series. It’s Sanada’s compelling turn as Japanese ruler Yoshii Toranaga in Shōgun that looks certain to win, but credit should go to Goggins for his peppery turn in the apocalyptic drama Fallout. Goggins – one of TV’s very best character actors – is big and magnetic, and the series wouldn’t work without him.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show as Alex Levy (Apple TV+)
Carrie Coon – The Gilded Age as Bertha Russell (HBO)
Maya Erskine –Mr & Mrs Smith as Jane Smith / Alana (Prime Video)
Anna Sawai – Shōgun as Toda Mariko (FX)
Imelda Staunton – The Crown as Queen Elizabeth II (Netflix)
Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show as Bradley Jackson (Apple TV+)
Will win: Anna Sawai
Should win: Maya Erskine
Shōgun star Sawai will probably win here, as part of the multi-category sweep that the Japan-set drama is poised to make. And her performance here is undoubtedly worthy. But Erskine, playing Glover’s counterpart in the spies-in-matrimony remake Mr & Mrs Smith, accomplishes something much trickier. She’s funny, she’s credible – and it’s a shame she won’t win.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Matt Berry – What We Do in the Shadows as Laszlo Cravensworth (FX)
Larry David – Curb Your Enthusiasm as Larry David (HBO)
Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building as Charles Haden Savage (Hulu)
Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building as Oliver Putnam (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White – The Bear as Carmy Berzatto (FX)
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai – Reservation Dogs as Bear Smallhill (FX)
Will win: Jeremy Allen White
Should win: Steve Martin
Yes, chef! This trophy has White’s name on it. The Bear has seemingly unstoppable awards momentum, and it’s a brilliant showcase for White’s versatility. Bear (sorry) in mind too that, because of the eligibility rules around release dates, voters are actually recognising his performance in the show’s stellar second season from 2023, rather than the patchier third instalment that arrived a few months back. Still, though, there’s still a big question mark hanging over whether it is technically a comedy. For a more cut-and-dry comic performance, Martin’s all-singing, all-dancing turn in season three of Only Murders in the Building is an absolute delight.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary as Janine Teagues (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri – The Bear as Sydney Adamu (FX)
Selena Gomez – Only Murders in the Building as Mabel Mora (Hulu)
Maya Rudolph – Loot as Molly Wells (Apple TV+)
Jean Smart – Hacks as Deborah Vance (HBO)
Kristen Wiig –Palm Royaleas Maxine Simmons (Apple TV+)
Will win: Jean Smart
Should win: Jean Smart
She has already picked up two consecutive Emmys for her turn as old-school comedy diva Deborah Vance, and Smart now looks set to make that a hat trick: the third season of Hacks was widely celebrated as its best yet, and Smart remained on top form. If anyone has a shot at stealing the trophy, it’s probably 2023’s winner Brunson, who is still a joy to watch in Abbott Elementary, or Edebiri, who has been rightly bumped up to lead actress status for The Bear after winning in the supporting category back in January.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Richard Gadd – Baby Reindeer as Donny Dunn (Netflix)
Matt Bomer – Fellow Travelers as Hawkins Fuller (Showtime)
Jon Hamm – Fargo as Roy Tillman (FX)
Tom Hollander – Feud: Capote vs The Swans as Truman Capote (FX)
Andrew Scott – Ripley as Tom Ripley (Netflix)
Will win: Richard Gadd
Should win: Andrew Scott
This one’s a particularly stacked category, filled with worthy winners, but Baby Reindeer’s creator-star Gadd feels like the one to beat (his is by far the most talked-about performance on the list, despite the fact that he had a very limited profile in the US just a few months ago). Scott, however, was snubbed by the Emmys for his role as Fleabag’s “hot priest” so it feels like he is well overdue some recognition from voters. His performance as Ripley’s titular conman was by turns charming and chilling, and once again proved that he’s one of the most compelling actors working today.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Jodie Foster – True Detective: Night Country as Detective Elizabeth Danvers (HBO)
Brie Larson – Lessons in Chemistry as Elizabeth Zott (Apple TV+)
Juno Temple – Fargo as Dorothy "Dot" Lyon (FX)
Sofía Vergara – Griselda as Griselda Blanco (Netflix)
Naomi Watts – Feud: Capote vs. The Swans as Babe Paley (FX)
Will win: Jodie Foster
Should win: Juno Temple
Icy crime drama True Detective: Night Country may have polarised critics, but Foster’s lead performance, as flinty police chief Liz Danvers, drew raves across the board. Temple’s fascinatingly eccentric turn in Fargo’s return-to-form fifth season would be an equally apt victor, however. As “Dot” Lyon, a Minnesota homemaker with a dark and mysterious backstory, Temple was the most compelling piece of a large and colourful puzzle, holding her own against seasoned heavyweights such as Jennifer Jason Leigh, Hamm and Dave Foley.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Tadanobu Asano – Shōgun as Kashigi Yabushige (FX)
Billy Crudup –The Morning Showas Cory Ellison (Apple TV+)
Mark Duplass – The Morning Showas Chip Black (Apple TV+)
Jon Hamm – The Morning Showas Paul Marks (Apple TV+)
Takehiro Hira – Shōgun as Ishido Kazunari (FX)
Jack Lowden – Slow Horses as River Cartwright (Apple TV+)
Jonathan Pryce – The Crown as Prince Philip (Netflix)
Will win: Billy Crudup
Should win: Tadanobu Asano
Emmy voters really, really like Crudup. He previously won this same award for his portrayal of The Morning Show exec Cory Ellison back in 2020, beating the surely-one-of-them-will-win Succession trio of Matthew Macfadyen, Kieran Culkin and Nicholas Braun. He’s only had more time to impress since then, meaning the smart money is on him. Still, there’s a strong possibility that Shōgun’s Asano might just sweep to victory, thanks to his standout portrayal of unscrupulous warlord Kashigi Yabushige; it’s a layered, fascinating performance that steals every scene he’s in.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski – The Gilded Age (HBO)
Nicole Beharie – The Morning Showas Christina Hunter (Apple TV+)
Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown as Princess Diana (Netflix)
Greta Lee –The Morning Show as Stella Bak (Apple TV+)
Lesley Manville – The Crown as Princess Margaret (Netflix)
Karen Pittman –The Morning Showas Mia Jordan (Apple TV+)
Holland Taylor –The Morning Showas Cybil Richards (Apple TV+)
Will win: Elizabeth Debicki
Should win: Elizabeth Debicki
Debicki’s uncanny portrayal of Princess Diana during the final few weeks of her life was the best thing about The Crown’s disappointing final hurrah by miles (that she just about managed to sell that ill-advised “ghost Diana” scene is proof of her power as a performer). She was nominated in this category for the 2023 awards, but inevitably lost out to Jennifer Coolidge’s bravura turn in The White Lotus; this time, the path to victory is much clearer. The Morning Show’s supporting cast just don’t have the visibility that comes with playing one of the most famous women in recent history, and Debicki’s co-star Lesley Manville didn’t have enough screen time as Princess Margaret to really make an impact.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Lionel Boyce – The Bear as Marcus Brooks (FX)
Paul W Downs – Hacks as Jimmy LuSaque, Jr. (Max)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach – The Bear as Richard “Richie” Jerimovich (FX)
Paul Rudd – Only Murders in the Building as Ben Glenroy (Hulu)
Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary as Gregory Eddie (ABC)
Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live as various characters (NBC)
Will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach
Should win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach
You can probably bet your house on this one: Moss-Bachrach, who won this category last time around, is the firm favourite this year, for his role as the explosive Ritchie in The Bear. Profiling the actor earlier this year, The Independent’s Ellie Harrison described him as the series’ “agent of chaos”. It’s a fascinating portrayal, full of edges and contradictions; the show wouldn’t be the same without him. Lionel Boyce, excellent but less prominent in the same series, doesn’t stand too much of a chance.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Carol Burnett – Palm Royaleas Norma Dellacorte (Apple TV+)
Liza Colón-Zayas – The Bear as Tina Marrero (FX)
Hannah Einbinder – Hacks as Ava Daniels (Max)
Janelle James – Abbott Elementary as Ava Coleman (ABC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary as Barbara Howard (ABC)
Meryl Streep – Only Murders in the Building as Loretta Durkin (Hulu)
Will win: Hannah Einbinder
Should win: Liza Colón-Zayas
It’s a clear-cut case of “category fraud”, I’m afraid. Don’t get me wrong, Einbinder is brilliant in Hacks, playing the long-suffering twentysomething comedian paired up with Smart’s diva-ish old star. But it is no supporting performance: Hacks is a two-hander through and through, and she should rightly be running against Smart, instead of the supporting ensemble here. Colón-Zayas, meanwhile, gives a consummate supporting performance in The Bear, as Tina, the world-weary line cook, and would make a fine, and more fitting, alternative. Or, you know, there’s always Streep.
