Florida Democrats hope to convince Harris, donors at DNC that state is still in play

Florida Democrats heading to Chicago for their party’s national convention are hoping to convince top Democratic donors and officials that the Sunshine State is still in play in this year’s presidential election despite serious doubts among some national operatives.

They say they have a case to make. In the less-than four weeks since Kamala Harris established herself as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, some polling suggests that the vice president is closing the gap with former President Donald Trump in Florida. Her campaign has also enlisted the help of tens of thousands of new volunteers — more than any other state — who have begun making phone calls and knocking on doors across the state.

Whether the momentum can be sustained — and whether it’s enough to reestablish Florida as a true battleground state in November — remains to be seen. There are now a million more active registered Republican voters in the state than Democrats, and neither Harris’ campaign nor aligned national groups are investing the kind of ad dollars in Florida that they are in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Still, top Florida Democrats say it’s a mistake to overlook the Sunshine State.

“I think when we get there it’s really going to solidify the case that we’ve been trying to make,” said Florida state Sen. Shevrin Jones, the chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party. “The meetings that I’m going to have — sitting down with donors and sitting down with party leaders — are to let them know that not only is Florida in play but can’t be ignored and should not be ignored.”

Jones acknowledged that Florida is still likely to be an uphill battle for Democrats in November. Many national donors, he said, have been skittish when it comes to spending political dollars in Florida, and Republicans still control the levers of power in the state. Jones said that the goal should be to develop a “long-term strategy.”

“The Republicans didn’t get here overnight, and it’s going to take us time to get there,” he said. “We can’t neglect the resources that are needed in order to build that bench, in order to build that infrastructure.”

In the short term, however, Florida has largely been overlooked in the 2024 race. So far, little more than $300,000 has been spent on TV and radio ads in the presidential race, most of it by outside groups like the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, according to Christopher Brimer, a partner at the Atlanta-based agency Canal Partners Media.

President Joe Biden’s campaign — which was largely turned over to Harris after Biden bowed out of the race last month – dropped $11,400 on an ad buy in the Jacksonville media market earlier this year, according to Brimer. Trump’s campaign hasn’t spent anything on TV or radio in the state.

Trump’s team has expressed little concern about his standing in Florida. A survey conducted by one of Trump’s pollsters, McLaughlin & Associates, released this week found the former president leading Harris by 8 percentage points in Florida. In a statement, a spokesperson for Trump’s campaign deemed the Sunshine State as “Trump country.”

“In November, Florida voters will send a clear and resounding message: President Donald J. Trump is the only leader with a proven track record of making our nation prosperous and affordable,” said Rachel Reisner, the Trump campaign’s regional communications director. “The movement to Make America Great Again is alive and growing, and it starts here in Florida.”

Democrats, however, say that Trump and Republicans are taking Florida for granted. In an interview with the Miami Herald, Nikki Fried, the chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party, said that the GOP is “sleeping on Florida at their own peril.”

She said she plans to make the case to national Democrats in Chicago next week that it’s time to start investing in Florida, arguing that the recent momentum for Harris has come in spite of the lack of national spending.

“There is a tremendous case to be made. And all of this is done without a true investment. This is all organic,” Fried told the Herald in an interview. “This is because of the hard work that FDP has been doing for the last year and half. The shift in momentum is because of the work that’s been done on the ground and done organically. I do think this is an opportunity for us to make this pitch.”

Fueling the sense of optimism among Democrats is a series of recent polling that shows a tightening contest between Trump and Harris. One survey from USA Today and Suffolk University released this week found Harris trailing Trump by 5 percentage points – a narrower margin than in many previous polls.

Another poll from Florida Atlantic University’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab showed an even closer race, with Trump leading Harris by just 3 percentage points.

Brett Loyd, a Republican pollster who previously worked for Trump’s campaign, said it’s too early to know how the presidential race will play out, but argued that Harris’ candidacy could make things more competitive, even in a state like Florida, which has swung to the right in recent years.

He noted that before Biden dropped out of the race last month, voters were largely unenthusiastic about a rematch between Biden and Trump. Having Harris’ name at the top of the ticket changes that, Loyd said.

“There’s so much opportunity I think for this ‘Harris honeymoon’ — people saying they didn’t want the same matchup as 2020,” Loyd said. “So I would think that Florida absolutely should be on people’s radar.”

Democrats say that it’s not just polling alone that strengthens their case that Florida is in play. Harris’ campaign has added almost 22,000 new volunteers to its operation in Florida over the past month, according to data reviewed by the Miami Herald. While most of the new sign-ups are registered Democrats, roughly one in ten are independents, while 5% are registered Republican voters.

While it’s not the kind of ultra-expensive campaign that Florida has seen in the past, Harris’ team is hoping to take advantage of the surge in interest. The campaign is set to hold watch parties for Harris’ Democratic National Convention speech next week in Miami-Dade, Broward, Leon and Orange counties.

In the days leading up to the convention, which begins on Monday, Harris’ Florida team has already scheduled close to 40 events, a campaign spokesperson said. The campaign is also organizing phone-banking events at cat cafes that it’s dubbing “cat-lady phone banks” – a dig at Republican Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance’s public digs at so-called “childless cat ladies.”

Adelys Ferro, a co-chair of Venezolanos con Kamala, said that she’s received an influx of calls and messages in recent weeks from eager voters asking to volunteer for Harris’ campaign. She conceded that Florida has proved elusive for Democrats over the past several years, but said that she believes Harris’ candidacy is a gamechanger.

“I know what the situation is in Florida,” Ferro said. “But I can also tell you this: something changed with Kamala Harris and I hope that change stays.”