Helene updates: Florida Big Bend braces for a hurricane, storm surge without precedent

A strengthening Helene in the Gulf of Mexico is the latest tropical terror to grip Florida.

The expected Category 3 hurricane closing in on Florida's Big Bend has already prompted three coastal counties – Franklin, Wakulla and Taylor – to order all residents to evacuate in the face of a projected and "not survivable" 15-foot storm surge. Helene could also become Tallahassee's worst wind event in recorded history as 100 mph winds meet "Tree City USA."

Ryan Truchelut, founder of WeatherTiger and a hurricane forecaster for the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida, said Helene, which became a hurricane Wednesday morning, is a storm without precedent.

"Helene stands toe-to-toe with any of the threats that Florida has faced over the past ten years or indeed really over hurricane history."

Here's the latest from the path of the storm.

Florida State University advises students to consider evacuating

FSU Alert, the Florida State University emergency warning system, is recommending that "individuals should strongly consider making plans to leave the Tallahassee area TODAY before weather conditions deteriorate and be prepared to be away from campus for an extended period of time."

"As a major hurricane, Helene has the potential to cause severe wind damage and widespread power outages in the Tallahassee area," FSU Alert stated, "The university’s operations could be disrupted for a significantly longer period than initially anticipated."

Tallahassee's history of dodging bullets with hurricanes may come to a violent end

Tallahassee has a mostly charmed history with hurricanes, though that's changed a bit over recent years – and may end violently on Thursday if Hurricane Helene's eyewall tears thorough Tallahassee.

In the past, hurricanes of all sizes have either lost their wind strength by the time they hit us (Eloise, 1975; Alma, 1966). Or they veer around Tallahassee, while dumping tons of rain (numerous times).

Click here to learn about some of the most notable storms to pass through the area.

'Prepare for a direct hit,' city of Tallahassee officials warn

The city of Tallahassee just texted its utility customers the following: "Helene has been upgraded to a hurricane and is forecast to be a major hurricane with peak winds of 125mph before making landfall tomorrow, with Tallahassee projected to receive a direct hit. Finalize all preparations and plans now."

Helene reaches hurricane status

While crossing into the Gulf of Mexico on a collision course with Florida, Helene is now officially a hurricane packing winds of 70 mph. Forecasters expect Helene will reach Category 3 status with winds as high as 125 mph before it reaches landfall.

"There is still some uncertainty on exactly how strong Helene will get, and upward adjustments to the forecast intensity could be required in subsequent advisories if Helene rapidly intensifies more than forecast," National Hurricane Center forecasters wrote in the latest discussion. "Regardless, Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side."

As the storm ticked east, the hurricane warning was also extended the Jackson and Calhoun counties.

See the storm's latest track and models and overlay it with your address using our Storm Tracker and Model Mixer. Bookmark it at https://data.tallahassee.com/storm/

Leon, Tallahassee officials brief community ahead of Hurricane Helene's 'unprecedented damage'

The City of Tallahassee and Leon County are holding a hurricane preparedness update.

Mayor John Dailey warned residents that if the forecast track holds the community will see "unprecedented damage like nothing we have ever experienced before as a community."

Officials also declared a mandatory evacuation for those living in mobile and manufactured homes.

Time running out for 'bacon-saving east shift' that would spare Tallahassee, neighbors brunt of Helene

In his morning briefing, Dr. Ryan Truchelut, of Tallahassee-based WeatherTiger, warned that the noose is closing around Florida’s capital city and its coastal neighbors.

Strengthening Tropical Storm Helene will avoid all land interaction and shoot through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico, giving it a glide path for rapid intensification on its way to Florida as a Category 3 storm, or even higher.

When the storm eventually makes landfall between Apalachicola and Cedar Key, it could be more devastating than Hurricane Michael for many communities.

“Life-threatening storm surge of 10-15’+ in Apalachee Bay will submerge much of the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle’s low-lying coastal counties, where mandatory evacuations are in effect,” wrote Truchelut, who produces written and interactive video forecasts for the USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida. “This would by far be the worst surge in recorded history in Apalachee Bay, exceeding Michael’s surge and that of the much smaller Idalia in Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast.”

He also noted that as Helene’s track holds steady “time is running out of time for the kind of bacon-saving east shift that kept the worst of Idalia and Debby to our southeast.”

“The difference between damaging and potentially catastrophic winds for your local impact is whether or not the core/eyewall of Helene moves over you, which in this case may be 60 miles wide or so” he wrote. “It’s too early to know exactly who will get the core, but if you do, expect damaging inland wind gusts of 80-100+ mph. For Tallahassee, that would cause damage exceeding Hermine or Michael.”

He noted that today is the last day to conclude your preparations.

“IF YOU HAVE AN EVACUATION ORDER, GO TODAY. Weather conditions will go downhill tomorrow.”

Commissioner Rick Minor: Tallahassee could see six hours of 74-110 mph winds

Leon County Commissioner Rick Minor pleaded with residents to take seriously Hurricane Helene, which is on track to make landfall south of Tallahassee as a Category 3 storm with winds as high as 115 mph.

In an email to constituents on Tuesday night, Minor said he was briefed by Leon County Emergency Management officials, who said that if the current track holds, Leon County will suffer a direct hit.

"On Thursday we'll face about six hours of sustained winds of 74-110 mph, leading to thousands of downed trees, more than a hundred blocked roads, hundreds of damaged structures, and many, many days of extended power outages," he said. "But we mustn't panic — fortunately, we all have enough time to carefully plan and prepare.

Minor urged people to go to www.LeonReady.com, review the checklists and other info and start your preparations now.

""Listen to the updated storm forecasts, carefully consider the expert advice that'll be provided," Minor said, "and finalize the plan for yourself, your family, and your pets: do you evacuate, go to a shelter, or wait out the storm at home?"

Minor said the forecast could change, but he warned residents not to bank on it.

"But if the current projections turn out to be true, it's going to be a bad one," he wrote. "Leon County residents can't afford to discount the severity of this storm."

'Nightmare' scenario unfolding for Big Bend, Tallahassee

As Tallahasseeans awoke Wednesday morning, there was no big shift in the track of what is expected to become Hurricane Helene later today. There was no wind shear that diminished what is shaping up to be an unprecedented threat to Tallahassee.

Florida's capital city and its Big Bend coastal neighbors remain in the bullseye. For those living in Wakulla, Franklin and Taylor counties, the National Weather Service forecasters offered a grim wakeup call hours after emergency managers ordered all county residents to evacuate.

"This forecast, if realized, is a nightmare surge scenario for Apalachee Bay," forecasters wrote in the latest cyclone statement for the region. "Please, please, please take any evacuation orders seriously."

While exact impacts will be heavily dependent on the eventual track, expect catastrophic wind damage near the eventual point and inland along the track. Even though the hurricane is forecast to be moving quickly, very high rainfall rates and already saturated soils in some places will still combine for a serious flood risk across the region. Tornadoes also are possible.

According to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Helene could render some areas "uninhabitable for weeks or months." Widespread power and communications outages also are expected for prolonged periods.

The NWS said potential impacts include structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures; complete destruction of mobile homes; damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles; numerous large trees snapped or uprooted; fences and roadway signs blown over; many roads impassable from large debris and more within urban or heavily wooded places; many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.

Storm surge flooding, which could be as high as 15 feet in some places along Apalachee Bay, will be "greatly accentuated" by powerful battering waves. Other impacts from the surge include structural damage to buildings, with many washing away; damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris; near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded; flood control systems and barriers may become stressed; extreme beach erosion; new shoreline cuts possible; massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks and piers; numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded.

Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com or follow @JeffBurlew on Twitter.

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Helene updates: Florida hurricane threat without precedent unfolding