Josh Harder vs. Kevin Lincoln for Congress: What to know about this close California race

Nonpartisan election analysts are tracking the race for Stockton’s congressional district as one that could be close on November 5.

Nonpartisan analysts including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate that California’s 9th Congressional District will likely, but not definitely, pick incumbent Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, over Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, a Republican.

The 9th Congressional District, which centers around Stockton, holds most of San Joaquin County and reaches from Galt through Manteca. There are more Democrats registered than Republicans.

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Over the last year, The Bee has spoken to analysts across these organizations. They’ve cited national Republican enthusiasm to flip this seat and Lincoln’s candidacy as an upside for the GOP on this seat. They noted Harder’s decisive 2022 win and the district’s left-leaning makeup favor Democrats.

While it’s rated as likely Democratic, analysts are watching to see whether it will become closer as November approaches.

“That’s one that I think Republicans are really bullish on, and I can definitely see that becoming more competitive,” Erin Covey, a U.S. House analyst and editor at The Cook Political Report, said in an August interview.

Ten California House races are on analysts’ watch lists, including the one for the 9th.

California congressional contests will help decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the House of Representatives in 2025. Several of the states’ races are high priorities for national Democrats and Republicans in November.

There are 220 Republicans, 211 Democrats and four vacancies in the House. Three of those empty seats were held by Democrats, one by a Republican. The number for control of the chamber is 218, meaning Democrats need to flip four seats nationwide to win control of the House.

Josh Harder

Harder, 38, has represented the Central Valley in Congress since 2019. He entered the House by ousting a Republican congressman from a district containing Harder’s hometown of Turlock. Harder retained his seat in the 2020 election.

Following 2020 redistricting, the once-a-decade redrawing of legislative maps based on census data, Harder’s old district was chopped up. A significant chunk moved into a district with Stockton.

When longtime Stockton Rep. Jerry McNerney, a Democrat, said he was not going to run for Congress again, Harder announced he would run in the newly-drawn seat. He won by almost 10 percentage points against San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, a Republican.

Harder worked in venture capital until 2017. He left during his first congressional bid and taught at Modesto Junior College.

In Congress, he sits on the powerful House Appropriations Committee, which writes government spending bills.

Harder said in an interview that cost of living, water access and reproductive health care were driving constituent conversations. He thinks of his two young daughters when he thinks about the rise of laws restricting abortion access and the overruling of Roe v. Wade.

Harder said Roe v. Wade’s federal protections should be returned. Following the Supreme Court’s 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade, a person nationwide legally could seek an abortion until the point of fetal viability, which is generally regarded as around 24 weeks of pregnancy. The Supreme Court overturned the near-50-year precedent in 2022.

“I want my daughters, who will be six-generation residents of San Joaquin County and the Valley, to be able to have a home,” Harder said, “to be able to have the same way of life that’s been passed down generation after generation, and to be able to have the same rights that have been enshrined into our law that are being undermined right now.”

Kevin Lincoln

Lincoln, 43, has been mayor of Stockton since 2021, running for and entering public office for the first time amid the coronavirus pandemic that forced lockdowns throughout the U.S.

Cost of living, crime and combating the effects of fentanyl were top-of-mind issues in many of his recent conversations with constituents, he said in an interview.

Prior to becoming mayor, Lincoln served in the U.S. Marine Corps and on Marine One during President George W. Bush’s administration. After moving back to California to start his family, Lincoln was a district manager for a private security company and an executive administrator for his local church.

Lincoln’s own family has struggled with the effects of addiction, crime and homelessness. He recalled as a teenager a homeless man asking him for money, only to find out the person was his biological father. Lincoln hadn’t seen him in a few years. Throughout his childhood, his father had been in and out of jail.

“There were people in my life here in Stockton that helped me and my mom and my family out in times of need,” Lincoln said. “And so I’d always had a call to service. I always felt the desire to give back where I could.”

Fundraising

Harder has had the fundraising advantage.

While campaign finances are far from the only factor in determining an election, cash on hand lets candidates spend more on advertisements, events and other supplies necessary to a campaign. It’s also good to reserve money in case of unexpected issues.

Campaign funds come from a wide range of sources, including those not specified in the candidate’s official report, from individual donors, political action committees, other lawmakers and joint-fundraising groups.

Harder’s campaign committee raised almost $730,000 from the beginning of April to end of June, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission reports, which became available in July. He had more than $3.3 million available.

Lincoln’s raised almost $338,000 in the same time period. He reported over $620,000 on hand.

Previously, analysts had said that President Joe Biden running for re-election might have had a negative impact on vulnerable Democratic incumbents such as Harder, particularly due to the nationalization of local races and the decline of split-ticket voting, where someone picks candidates for separate offices from a different parties on the same ballot.

With Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, Biden’s drag is not a factor.

Rather, deputy editor of Inside Elections Jacob Rubashkin said in August, “Harris’ ability to keep up the enthusiasm and keep up her ability to win over moderates and Independents is going to be crucial for these downballot candidates.”