Here are Mitch McConnell’s three biggest challenges this fall in Congress

Navigate a fight over the Save Act. Stave off a government shutdown. Win two Senate seats to hand Republicans control of the chamber in 2025.

Those are the top priorities of Mitch McConnell during his final two months as GOP leader, when Congress returns next week from its summer recess.

The 82-year-old McConnell will guide his caucus for the final stretch of his career in the midst of a blistering presidential race and a fierce competition for Congress that could impact the political incentives of lawmakers under the U.S. Capitol dome.

The challenge that will consume most of this month is reaching an agreement to fund federal government agencies before the Sept. 30 deadline, an annual process that has become a stage for maximal demands and theatrical brinkmanship.

“The government funding battle is always a challenging time for Republican leaders, but it will be especially daunting this time around because of the election year stakes and House Republicans that are making unrealistic demands,” said Ron Bonjean, a former GOP Capitol Hill aide.

Some conservatives have already called for a government shutdown if Congress doesn’t push through the Save Act — House-stamped legislation that would require proof of citizenship to vote.

“This is supported by Senator Mike Lee. This is even supported by Elon Musk. But I’ll tell you something else, you know who came out against this yesterday? Mitch McConnell,” said Jack Posobiec, a senior editor at the conservative publication Human Events.

Most evidence suggests that non-citizen voting is not a widespread problem and it is not legal in any state for a non-citizen to cast a ballot in a federal election. A study of the 2016 general election by the Brennan Center for Justice analyzing 23.5 million votes found just 30 instances of non-citizen voting.

In Kentucky, the state constitution already specifies that only residents who are U.S. citizens are eligible to vote in the state’s elections.

McConnell hasn’t commented publicly on the bill.

Nonetheless, conservatives have reacted bitterly to a report that McConnell aides have privately argued such legislation would backfire against Republicans in a Democratic-controlled Senate, particularly up against the threat of a shutdown.

Groups like the Americans for Legal Immigration political action committee have encouraged their members to call McConnell’s office “to stop helping non-citizens and illegals vote by blocking the Save Act!”

The issue could pit McConnell against Speaker Mike Johnson, who has signaled openness to attaching the measure to a government funding bill and is under pressure from the far right plank in his party as well as former President Donald Trump, who wants illegal immigration at the center of his campaign against Kamala Harris.

House conservatives want to force McConnell’s hand.

“Tie it to any spending we send over and tell the Senate we shouldn’t fund a government that doesn’t check citizenship to vote. Period,” Rep. Chip Roy of Texas posted on X.

A bridge, vets and nutrition

What’s at stake in the short-term funding package that must be passed before the clock strikes October?

In short, billions of dollars for veterans, low-income nutritional programs and Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, which collapsed after a container ship hit it last spring. McConnell has said the federal government will cover the “lion’s share” of the costs to replace the artery.

The Department of Veterans Affairs is facing a roughly $3 billion budget shortfall for fiscal year 2024 that needs to be resolved in order to fulfill disability, pension and education compensation payments to veterans. More than 117,000 Kentucky veterans are enrolled in the VA healthcare system.

The WIC program that assists low-income women and their children with food needs about $1.4 billion to remain solvent. It’s part of the farm bill, which is usually renewed every five years.

These are programs that are all likely to be tied up in a temporary funding agreement that will allow lawmakers to revisit larger questions at the end of the year or in the early months of 2025 when McConnell’s successor will be in charge.

But whether that future leader — likely Sen. John Thune of South Dakota or Sen. John Cornyn of Texas — will hold a Senate majority will come down to just a few states that McConnell and his political apparatus will obsess over during the next 60 days.

McConnell’s final map

At his stops around the commonwealth, McConnell is fond of telling constituents the obvious: He prefers serving as majority leader to minority leader.

But this cycle, he’s fighting for at least 51 seats to bolster his legacy and as a final show of force capping a historic 17-year run atop his conference.

He needs a pickup of just two seats.

With Republicans nearly certain to flip a seat in West Virginia, McConnell is eyeing races in the red states of Montana and Ohio to be the majority maker. He needs just one of those two.

The McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund PAC has reserved $57 million in advertising targeting Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester.

“We do have a good map,” McConnell said in Owensboro last week. “We’re almost entirely on offense, and we pretty much won West Virginia already. That puts us at 50, which is dead even.”

But in an interview with Erick Erickson in August, McConnell also looked at the glass half empty, acknowledging “I’ve seen us screw up maps before.”

“He’s one of the best fundraisers and strategic thinkers the party has had in recent memory, and his parting gift to Republicans as he retires from leadership will be a new majority next Congress,” said Bob Salera, a former aide to the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Even so, McConnell turned the heads of political observers when he declined to say who he thought would win the presidency.

Before a crowd at Commerce Lexington, he said the Harris-Trump contest will be a referendum on inflation and the southern border, but stopped short of declaring Trump to be the favorite.

McConnell, who has endorsed Trump, has a contentious history with the former president.

But he’s repeatedly said his primary focus of the 2024 cycle would be clinching a Senate majority, which could prove to be a check on whoever occupies the White House in 2025.

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