Some of NC’s big business announcements have yet to pan out. What’s going on? | Opinion

An Apple campus. A massive electric vehicle manufacturing site. A $1 billion Centene headquarters that was the largest single jobs announcement in state history.

These are some of the biggest economic development announcements in North Carolina in recent years, yet so far none of them have panned out as expected. Apple still has not broken ground on its proposed Research Triangle Park campus and will reportedly pause development for a number of years. VinFast, the Vietnamese electric car maker, has repeatedly delayed its timetable for opening a manufacturing plant in Chatham County, with production now not scheduled to begin until 2028. Combined, the two companies would receive nearly $2 billion in tax benefits if the projects are successful. In the case of Centene, the project was canceled altogether.

There has been an uptick in canceled incentives packages so far in 2024, while corporate relocations and expansions have slowed. At the same time, Gov. Roy Cooper and leaders in the GOP-controlled legislature often brag about North Carolina’s reputation as a great state for business. So what gives?

To a large extent, it has nothing to do with North Carolina at all, and more to do with the overall economy and the companies themselves.

With VinFast, it may just be about timing, Michael Walden, an economist who teaches at North Carolina State University, said.

“Unfortunately for them, they decided upon their project here in North Carolina just at the time that the [EV] market was softening,” Walden said. “It’s bad timing, and in the long run, that’ll probably fix itself. The question then is, can they hold out for the long run?”

With Apple, Walden said, the delay may also be attributed to market conditions. Apple’s RTP campus is expected to focus on artificial intelligence and machine learning, a fast-growing sector with heavy competition.

“My surmise would be that Apple has decided they want to wait until things get settled, until they see who’s going to be their competitor,” Walden said.

And, like everything else, corporate plans have been deeply affected by the pandemic. Office-based projects such as Centene’s headquarters — and a recently canceled agreement with Raleigh tech startup Bandwidth that would have created more than 1,000 jobs — are no longer as feasible in this era of remote work. Walden noted that the kind of jobs that Apple would likely hire for its RTP campus are particularly susceptible to remote work, which could perhaps cause them to scale down their facility.

David Rhoades, spokesperson for the North Carolina Department of Commerce, said that office-based projects have been reassessing their strategic real estate needs, but manufacturing projects have had more success. Rhoades cited Toyota’s multibillion dollar battery manufacturing facility in Randolph County and the Boom Supersonic facility that recently opened in the Triad as successes.

Jordan Monaghan, a spokesperson for Cooper, said the governor’s office has “confidence in our economic development projects and we have performance-based incentives to ensure taxpayers are protected.”

While there may not be cause for concern now, some legislative leaders do fear that North Carolina’s business reputation could be in jeopardy after November’s election.

House Democratic Leader Robert Reives, who represents Chatham and Randolph counties in the legislature, said he’s not worried about whether the VinFast project will be successful, but he does worry about the future of economic development in North Carolina if Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson becomes the state’s next governor. In addition to fanning the flames of divisive “culture war” issues, Robinson has said North Carolina shouldn’t offer tax breaks and financial incentives to attract businesses to the state, calling it “bribing.” The N.C. Chamber of Commerce has said that the election of far-right candidates could pose a threat to the state’s business climate.

“A lot of businesses have been very open that they disagree with Lt. Gov. Robinson’s ideas,” Reives said. “And I get a chance to meet with legislators all over the country pretty often, and they don’t hide the fact that they take advantage of these opportunities.”