Neck and Neck

New poll released Sunday: The latest presidential poll, from The New York Times and Siena College, was released over the weekend. It shows Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris basically neck and neck as we head into the final two months of the presidential race and the week of their first—and possibly only—debate.

Trump is technically in the lead, clinching 48 percent of likely voters to Harris' 47 percent. This poll, which has a margin of error of three percentage points, is consistent with recent swing state polling averages, which show true ties in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona and small Harris leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. (Pollster Nate Silver maintains a ranking, on Silver Bulletin, of poll quality, and New York Times/Siena is considered second-highest-rated of the many on offer.)

National polls from The Wall Street Journal and Quinnipiac, both surveying likely voters and conducted during the last week of August, show the two candidates basically neck and neck as well, with a tiny Harris lead.

Changing demographics: This race's gender divide—Harris' 14-point lead among likely women voters (as of a few weeks ago), compared with Trump's 17-point lead among men—has been a huge source of headlines and analysis. The Democratic Party is increasingly winning over (disproportionately white) college-educated people but has been failing to maintain favor with working-class men. In particular, Republicans are doing increasingly well with Latino men.

"The reason that the race is tighter with Hispanics has everything to do with Hispanic men," Republican pollster David Lee told The Wall Street Journal.

"The basic theory that became orthodoxy in the party during the Obama era was this 'demographics is destiny' concept—literally every 30 seconds a new Latino is born in America, and that's a future Democrat," Mike Madrid, a political strategist focused on reaching Latino voters, told Politico. But this ended up being untrue. "The political difference between a first- and second-generation Latino is a pretty big leap. The step from a second- to a third-generation Latino is tectonic. And so over the last 10 years, we started to see dramatic growth in third- and now a discernible fourth-generation Latino voter."

Scenes from New York: The newest, strangest, Brooklynest social media–driven trend: Throwing a baby shower or birthday party for your frozen eggs. "As women, we really only celebrate things like engagements, wedding anniversaries and baby showers," said TikToker Becky Hayes in a video. "A few of my friends, at the moment, are going through the process of freezing their eggs. This is such a big, stressful and expensive process. They are going through it all by themselves—funding it themselves, going through the actual logistics of it themselves. This needs to be celebrated." I don't blame you if you suspect that this is made up and nobody actually does it, but I'll note that there's even an Evite template for this genre of party.

Though I am always in favor of a good time, there's a crucial distinction between going through egg retrieval versus pregnancy. Baby showers are meant to fête a new mother: to provide her with supplies she needs, wisdom she seeks, and some excitement as she prepares to go through the hardships of delivery and postpartum. Brooklyn's single women might think their fertility journeys also deserve celebration, but it's just not the same thing.

QUICK HITS

• "Supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro began flooding Sao Paulo's main boulevard for an Independence Day rally Saturday, buoyed by the government's blocking of tech billionaire Elon Musk's X platform, a ban they say is proof of their political persecution," reports CNN. "The ban is red meat to Bolsonaro's allies, who have accused the judiciary and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government of colluding to silence their movement."

• "Deflation stalking China since last year is now showing signs of spiraling, threatening to worsen the outlook for the world's second-largest economy and raising calls for immediate policy action," reports Bloomberg.

• Viktor Orbán wants to pull a Greg Abbott and send buses of asylum-seekers to Brussels. "If Brussels wants illegal migrants, Brussels can have them," said State Secretary Bence Rétvári.

• Yes:

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