Opinion - Will rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey sustain the Libya challenge?

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s recent trip to Turkey marks a crucial milestone in the regional geopolitics. This visit, the first by an Egyptian leader to Turkey in over a decade, signals a potential thaw in what has long been a fraught relationship. The trip is being labeled as a new phase of working to improve a complicated relationship between two key regional powers. For a long time, Egypt and Turkey have been in a kind of cold war since the Arab Spring brought political chaos about ten years ago.

The removal of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi from power in 2013 was the tipping point that prompted acrimony between the two countries. Turkey supported his Islamist allies and provided sanctuary to opposition figures connected to the Muslim Brotherhood. This episode widened the wedge between Cairo and Ankara. During this phase, both countries nurtured intense animosity and rivalry. Each nation blatantly supported opposite sides across various issues in the region. This led to diplomatic fallout, with both countries sending their ambassadors away and reducing ties dramatically.

Turkish media channels, often giving airtime to Egyptian Islamist opposition members living abroad, became a sore point for Egypt as they called for protests against al-Sisi’s government. Likewise, Egyptian media celebrated when there was a failed coup attempt against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in 2016.

The split widened in 2019 when Turkey sought to drill for natural gas in contested areas near Cyprus, clashing with Egypt’s agreements for gas work with Cyprus. Libya became another area of conflict where Turkey and Egypt supported rival sides during its ongoing crisis — Turkey backing the UN-supported government and Egypt siding with Haftar’s Libyan National Army. During all this tension, al-Sisi drew a “red line” at Sirte, promising military action if Turkey’s proxies crossed it. A direct fight almost happened, but Turkish forces stopped their advance and there was a fragile ceasefire instead.

Yet even after all these years of distrust, things might be changing now. Both nations are beginning to adjust their regional plans, looking for ways beyond conflict — showing how Middle Eastern politics continues to evolve. The latest meeting between al-Sisi and Erdogan in Ankara points to a major shift where old ideological battles are slowly turning into practical concerns about working together.

Now, after many bitter episodes, there’s a strong focus on economic gains and strategic partnerships instead of rivalry. Normalization talks began almost three years ago between Ankara and Cairo. These early discussions set up better relations that led to Erdoğan visiting Cairo in February 2024 — which was reciprocated by al-Sisi’s trip to Ankara this month. With rising economic and geopolitical challenges ahead, both countries appear eager to embrace partnership over conflict.

New geopolitical challenges have made Egypt and Turkey realize that aligning their interests is important. This includes energy security and stability in the region.

In the domain of defense too, cooperation might change the power balance in the Middle East. Here, practical needs often win over ideological divides. However, the success of this new cooperation depends upon the degree to which both leaders handle past grievances while focusing on common goals. The overall geopolitical context in this part of the world has sharply changed — a prompting factor making Turkey and Egypt rethink their strategies. These former rivals are exploring chances for teamwork amidst ongoing conflicts surrounding them — such as the Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Libya’s instability and the Sudan crisis.

While the two nations seem to share a common interest in addressing the Gaza war, their deep-seated disagreements elsewhere, particularly in Libya, cast doubt on the potential for meaningful cooperation. Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, the country has been split between rival factions in the East and West. Turkey has thrown its weight behind the government in the West, intervening militarily in 2020 to prevent Tripoli from falling to Khalifa Haftar’s forces, a warlord backed by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia.

This lingering divide over Libya raises questions about the durability of the Egypt-Turkey rapprochement. The two countries are not just on opposite sides in this conflict; their stakes in the outcome are deeply entrenched. For Egypt, supporting Haftar is part of a broader strategy to counter Islamist movements and maintain regional influence. Turkey, on the other hand, views its role in Libya as vital for preserving its interests in the eastern Mediterranean and projecting power in North Africa.

Without a resolution to these competing agendas, any broader partnership between Cairo and Ankara may be fleeting. As such, while their alignment on Gaza is significant, it could ultimately prove a temporary convergence rather than a lasting shift in regional dynamics. In Libya especially — the situation will test their willingness further than just past aggression — they’ve backed opposing sides over time but recognize that finding common ground is essential for stabilizing Libya. Their influence might help guide Libya towards finding solutions politically, where those long-awaited elections could eventually take place. However, their newfound cooperation could foster a more balanced and unified approach to mediation by leveraging their influence over the respective Libyan factions.

Turkey and Egypt can facilitate dialogue and negotiations, potentially leading to a power-sharing agreement and a more stable political environment. Now these countries must adapt; their strategic interests hinge on cooperating rather than clashing. Working together could transform what once was rivalry into cautious partnership looking ahead. This reminds everyone how divisions based on ideology are drifting aside towards whatever brings shared stability along with mutual benefits.

Imran Khalid is a physician and has a master’s degree in international relations.

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