Three keys and a prediction for New Mexico-New Mexico State

Sep. 27—Does a two-game rivalry losing streak matter to Bronco Mendenhall?

"It's not on my radar. And it's not gonna make us, or me, try any harder — that's not possible," New Mexico's head coach chuckled at a press conference on Monday. "It's just this opponent, this game, this setting, this challenge, at this time to try to help my current team have success.

"And I have no other energy left after that."

And whether the context matters to Mendenhall, that opponent, that setting and that challenge sets up one of UNM's most anticipated games of the year.

New Mexico (0-4) travels to Aggie Memorial Stadium against rival New Mexico State (1-3) for the 114th edition of the Rio Grande Rivalry.

The Lobos (0-4) have been on the losing side the past two seasons, falling to the Aggies 21-9 and 27-17 in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

Three keys and a prediction for UNM's trip down to Las Cruces:

1. Clean up the penalties

Bronco Mendenhall loves analytics. "And I love studies and I love research and I love predictors of success," he said Monday.

And through those studies, he's found that penalties don't have a "statistical relevance" toward determining final outcome. Key penalties at crucial parts of games — a holding call wiping out a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, for instance — will have an impact, sure. But eight or nine penalties in the flow of the game?

It might not be the biggest deal — at least until you reach a certain number.

"And I would say probably 16 or 17 is that number," Mendenhall said.

One year after finishing as one of the most penalized teams in the nation, the flags are flying again for the Lobos. UNM was whistled 16 and 17 times against Auburn and Fresno State, respectively, both games ending with 122 corresponding penalty yards.

For the first two games of the season, it wasn't a problem. Thirty-three penalties over two games makes it one until further notice. Whether it's issues pre-snap, during the play or after, Mendenhall said the solution lies in greater focus from his team.

"We're asking a lot of our team, and they want to win and they want to try hard, and they're digging as deep as possible," he said. "And that digging deep is now moving them past their assignment, past their technique and past the typical play to trying to do more. And that's a challenge ... it doesn't take more than just what's within your assignment, within your technique, even though the urgency to have outcome is growing.

"And (when) the players feeling the pressure to have (outcome) is growing, you actually then (need to) play within your assignment, within your technique at a higher level, not going outside of it. So, yeah, we have lots to do."

That all starts against NMSU.

2. Limit turnovers

UNM's turnover margin, averaged over four games, is minus-0.25, tied with sixth other teams for 83rd in the 134-team FBS. Six of the team's four turnovers have come off interceptions thrown by quarterback Devon Dampier, with two each in the Lobos' last three games.

"(It) happens, but I plan on (making it up) to my team coming back this week," he said on Tuesday. "I'm gonna fix my mistakes."

If he does, that could play a big role in keying a winning effort. NMSU boasts a turnover margin of minus-1.25, a symptom of a similar proclivity to turn the ball over through the air.

3. Win the third quarter

Through four games, UNM has put up just 14 points in the third quarter courtesy of safety Noah Avinger's scoop-and-score touchdown against Montana State and a 7-yard Dampier touchdown run. The Lobos have been outscored 38-14 coming out of halftime — not a terrible mark, but not a great one either.

And yet, NMSU is worse coming out of the half: Through four games against FCS Southeast Missouri State, Liberty, Fresno State and Sam Houston State, the Aggies remain scoreless in the third quarter.

A strong performance out of the break would — and should — go a long way toward UNM snapping a two-game rivalry skid.

Prediction

It's been a rough start for NMSU's offense. And while it likely won't be perfect, it ought to be at least a little better come Saturday — much to UNM's chagrin.

The real matchup, however, is NMSU's defense and UNM's offense. The latter unit should be good enough to get the job done. New Mexico 31, New Mexico State 23