Tropical rainstorm to continue inland in Carolinas, Virginia with dangerous flooding risk
A tropical rainstorm will continue to bring torrential downpours capable of producing flash flooding in the Carolinas and southern Virginia through Tuesday night, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Impacts from heavy rain and flooding will ramp up in some inland areas, while heavy rain becomes more spotty along the coast. The magnitude of coastal flooding and beach erosion will ease as the storm's strongest onshore winds have diminished. However, high astronomical tides may continue to be a factor.
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This radar snapshot was captured on Tuesday morning, Sept. 17, 2024. |
"The only thing that held back the system from becoming an officially named subtropical storm on Monday was the lack of a closed circulation," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, "The open-sided storm produced 50-mph sustained winds, torrential rain, severe thunderstorms that prompted tornado warnings and sustained winds with much higher gusts."
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the only source that can officially name a tropical storm. A subtropical storm has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics. Often, a subtropical storm has a sweep of dry air on one side, as the storm near the Carolina coast exhibited.
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Gusts of 67 mph, which are the intensity of a strong tropical storm, were observed on a fishing pier at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, on Monday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds range from 39-73 mph.
However, the most significant impacts from the storm with no name were associated with torrential rain and coastal flooding. Rainfall of 15-20 inches fell as of Monday evening along the North Carolina coast since the start of the weekend. A band of rain from the Atlantic has been acting like a tremendous firehose of water and inundating communities in eastern North Carolina.
While the storm will continue to quickly lose wind energy as it moves inland into Tuesday, heavy rain with flooding problems will continue and spread inland.
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AccuWeather meteorologists designated the tropical rainstorm as a 1 on its RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes because of all storm impacts and risks to lives and property. The designation was issued late last week. The RealImpact™ Scale is not based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which only rates an established tropical system's wind intensity.
The heaviest downpours and gustiest conditions associated with the tropical wind and rainstorm were skewed to the north and northwest of the center of low pressure. This condition will continue as the storm moves inland toward the northwest into Tuesday night. Some rain will reach as far to the west as eastern and middle Tennessee and eastern and central Kentucky.
Tides will run high along much of the Southeast coasts through midweek due to the full moon, as the greatest effects of the wind and rainstorm have eased.
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Some coastal roads may be blocked by high water or washed out by high tide levels and wave action. These conditions can also put more beachfront homes at risk in the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
However, pockets of heavy rainfall may not be so fast to fade from the storm. Enough rain is forecast to fall to push small streams out of their banks, trigger urban flooding and cause significant rises on some of the rivers in the area from the Carolinas to Virginia, regardless of prior drought.
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There is a widespread zone where 2-4 inches of rain is forecast to fall from the Carolinas to Virginia, where large pockets of 4-8 inches of rain are likely in eastern areas and back toward the southern Appalachians.
Enough moisture will spill north from the inland-tracking storm to spread some rain into much of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, southern Pennsylvania and central and eastern West Virginia on Tuesday and Tuesday night. It would be the first rainfall in over a week for many of these locations.
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Just as Francine helped to spin up the tropical rainstorm along the Carolina coast this weekend, the tropical rainstorm may spin up a new feature from the middle to the latter part of this week along the mid-Atlantic coast. As the inland tropical rainstorm fades, the new storm just offshore will ramp up.
The upcoming spinoff storm has the best chance of spreading some rain into portions of the central Appalachians and southern New England. The same storm has the potential to trigger flooding downpours in parts of the mid-Atlantic to southeastern New England.
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How strong that storm becomes and its track will determine how extensive rain versus dry air will be in the Northeast. It is possible the dry wedge of air that set up over a week ago holds its ground from the eastern Great Lakes to the central Appalachians and perhaps part of the Atlantic coast.
This new storm may increase the risk of coastal flooding and rough surf from New England to the Carolinas later his week after a midweek lull.
Elsewhere, Gordon, which formed a few days ago, has weakened to a tropical depression while over the middle of the Atlantic.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring another zone for tropical development that could affect the United States and other land areas next week.
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"The current development risk covers a broad zone from the central Caribbean to part of the southwestern Atlantic and the eastern Gulf of Mexico," DaSilva said.
Should a tropical storm form and overcome wind shear, the waters will be very warm, which could foster quick strengthening.
A strong area of high pressure along the New England coast could heighten the risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion next week, even if a tropical system remains to the south.
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