NHC tracking disturbance 'just offshore' Texas coast. Will it develop over Labor Day?

Brandi D. Addison, Austin American-Statesman

The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical disturbances over the Labor Day weekend, including one in the Gulf of Mexico just offshore the coastlines of Texas and Louisiana.

"A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and Louisiana," the latest advisory states. "This system is expected to linger near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development is possible if it meanders offshore.

"Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days," the advisory adds.

Will the tropical disturbance develop? Likely flooding and heavy rains on Labor Day weekend

It remains uncertain whether the newest disturbance tracked by NHC will even develop into something bigger. As of Saturday afternoon, chance for formation is low.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, near 10 percent.

  • Formation chance through 7 days: Medium, 20 percent.

But it is still likely to impact those along the Texas coast during the holiday weekend with heavy rains and flooding.

Will the tropical disturbance develop? Likely flooding and heavy rains on Labor Day weekend

It's currently too soon to predict whether the other tropical waves, currently situated in the Caribbean Sea, will have any impact on Texas. Conditions can change rapidly, and the systems are still quite a distance away.

It's also unclear if these disturbances will develop into more significant systems, though chances of formation in next seven days for tropical disturbance 2 have growing significantly from 20% on Friday morning to 50% on Saturday afternoon. These are the latest chances.

Tropical Wave 2

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, near 0 percent.

  • Formation chance through 7 days: Medium, 50 percent.

Tropical Wave 3

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, near 0 percent.

  • Formation chance through 7 days: Low, 20 percent.

Could new tropical waves become Hurricane Francine?

While it's still too early to determine whether either tropical disturbance will emerge into a named storm, both waves come as the Atlantic approaches the peak of hurricane season, which falls around Sept. 10 each year.

Forecasters have previously warned that there could be up to 30 named storms season — doubling the average of 14 — as they expect oceans to fully transition into La Niña by fall. But after a fairly slow August, experts have released a new forecast with a bit lighter outlook, the Florida Times-Union reported.

Still, the season will likely be more active than usual.

“AccuWeather hurricane experts now assess that 20-23 named storms are most likely," said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter told the news organization.

How many named storms have hit in 2024?

So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen five named storms:

  • Tropical Storm Alberto: Made landfall on the Texas coast in June 2024 with some flooding, impacting the region less than initially forecasted.

  • Hurricane Beryl: Hit the Texas coast on July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane near Matagorda, causing at least 38 deaths and setting records for tornado spin-offs.

  • Tropical Storm Chris: Brought heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Mexico in early July.

  • Hurricane Debby: Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, and caused severe damage along the East Coast, resulting in at least 10 fatalities.

  • Hurricane Ernesto: Struck Puerto Rico on August 24 with significant flooding, then hit Bermuda. It was a moderately strong hurricane with three indirect fatalities.

What is La Niña?

La Niña − "little girl" in Spanish − is the climate phenomenon that describes projected when the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean near the equator are lower than the long-term average. El Niño – "little boy" in Spanish, her brother – is a climate phenomenon that results from those waters being warmer than usual.

The lower surface temperatures could mean warmer, drier weather throughout the southern region of the U.S. and the potential for a "hyperactive" hurricane season in the Atlantic basin this year.

Hurricane storm tracker: See active hurricanes in the Atlantic

Texas weather watches and warnings

A warning means that conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A watch means that conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Digital producer for USA TODAY Network - Florida Cheryl McCloud contributed to this story.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: NHC: Disturbance off Texas-Louisiana coastline ahead of Labor Day

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