Can OU football win the SEC in 2024? Best-case, worst-case scenario for Sooners
NORMAN — The third season of the Brent Venables era at OU and the first season for the Sooners in the SEC is quickly approaching.
OU opens the season Friday, Aug. 30 against Temple with plenty of promise but plenty of question marks as well.
Here’s a look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for each of OU’s games this season:
More: How new analyst rules will affect OU football's special teams under Doug Deakin
Aug. 30 vs. Temple (6 p.m., ESPN)
Best case: The Jackson Arnold era gets off to a rousing start, as the sophomore quarterback throws touchdowns to multiple receivers, avoids turnovers and is out of the game by halftime as the Sooners have the game in control. The defense shuts down the Owls, showcasing their depth in a shutout.
Worst case: The turnovers Arnold struggled with in the Alamo Bowl read their head again, the offensive line looks porous as Arnold is left scrambling and the running backs find little room to work. The defense helps the Sooners escape with a narrower-than-expected victory but shows cracks that could be troublesome later in the season.
-Ryan Aber
More: OU's Billy Bowman Jr., Danny Stutsman make preseason coaches All-SEC football first team
Sept. 7 vs. Houston (6:45 p.m., SEC Network)
Best case: Arnold finds a groove in his second regular season start. OU’s plethora of offensive weapons and stacked defense overwhelms a Houston team picked to finish second to last in the Big 12 preseason poll. The Sooners’ defense forces multiple turnovers on their way to a blow out win over the Cougars.
Worst case: Willie Fritz has Houston ready to compete in his second game as its head coach. Fritz, the back-to-back AAC Coach of the Year with Tulane, inspires his team enough to keep it close in Norman. Despite what EA Sports' "College Football 25" video game continuously simulates, it’s going to be tough for the Cougars to win in Norman. But worst case, OU escapes narrowly with a close victory.
-Colton Sulley
More: OU's Billy Bowman Jr., Danny Stutsman make preseason coaches All-SEC football first team
Sept. 14 vs. Tulane (2:30 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2)
Best case: OU’s defense shuts down star running back Makhi Hughes and the Sooners win handily in what figured to be their most challenging nonconference game.
Worst case: Former Sooners’ wide receiver Mario Williams torches his former squad with a monster game as the Green Wave finish off what they nearly pulled off in 2021 by upsetting OU in Norman.
-Ryan Aber
Sept. 21 vs. Tennessee (2:30-3:30 p.m. or 5-7 p.m.)
Best case: OU begins its history in the SEC 1-0. The Sooners celebrate national championship winning quarterback Josh Heupel, Arnold competes toe-to-toe with fellow class of 2023 five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava and OU defeats the Volunteers in a classic game. The Sooners start their conference slate — which includes six top 15 foes — on the right foot.
Worst case: Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. wreaks havoc on OU’s rebuilt offensive line, causing Arnold to run for his life and turn the ball over. The Sooners don’t appear ready for SEC play, which causes concern a week before heading to Auburn.
-Colton Sulley
Sept. 28 at Auburn (2:30-3:30 p.m.)
Best case: Arnold torches a suspect Tigers’ secondary as both Deion Burks and Jalil Farooq put up big numbers. In his first SEC road game, the closest he’ll play to home in the regular season, Danny Stutsman racks up double-digit tackle numbers as the Sooners roll.
Worst case: The Sooners drop to 0-2 in SEC play with a sloppy performance at Jordan-Hare Stadium. It’s not just Arnold who struggles with turnovers as Gavin Sawchuk and Jovantae Barnes cough the ball up and OU is left with an uphill climb to dig out of its hole.
-Ryan Aber
More: How new analyst rules will affect OU football's special teams under Doug Deakin
Oct. 12 vs. Texas in Dallas (2:30 p.m., ABC or ESPN)
Best case: Arnold cements himself into Red River Rivalry history like many past Sooner quarterbacks before him by upsetting a top-three-ranked Texas squad. OU’s defense picks up where it left off from last year’s rendition as Stutsman makes a game-changing play late in the game to seal the victory over a Longhorns team looking ahead to their Oct. 19 battle with Georgia.
Worst case: The Longhorns dominate the Sooners and move to 6-0. Texas’ stacked roster proves too much for OU’s as Quinn Ewers’ performance puts him squarely in the Heisman Trophy hunt. After a rough first two seasons, Steve Sarkisian appears to have the Longhorns firmly ahead of Venables’ Sooners in the tier of SEC powers.
-Colton Sulley
Oct. 19 vs. South Carolina (11 a.m.-noon)
Best case: The Sooners’ pass rush keeps the Gamecocks’ offense on their heels from the start. Freshmen Jayden Jackson and David Stone both record sacks as they once again signal the progress that Zac Alley’s defense has made and showcase the promise up front not only for the rest of the season but in the years beyond as OU blows out South Carolina.
Worst case: Shane Beamer’s plucky Gamecocks keep the Sooners in a daze, pulling off the upset. Even worse, it’s quarterback Davis Beville who comes off the bench late and makes the plays that seal OU’s fate, giving him a storybook moment after transferring from Norman in the offseason.
-Ryan Aber
Oct. 26 at Mississippi (11 a.m.-noon)
Best case: OU’s defense continues its dominating play and shuts down a loaded Mississippi offense. Venables’ defensive toughness bests Lane Kiffin’s offensive wizardry. The Sooners’ offensive line is able to contain star defensive lineman Walter Nolen enough for Arnold to be productive and OU grabs a tough road win.
Worst case: Nolen dominates the Sooners’ offensive line and Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart tosses five touchdown passes — connecting with Tre Harris for three — and stays in the thick of the Heisman race.
-Colton Sulley
More: How OU football is leaning on sports science, nutrition to prepare for 2024 season
Nov. 2 vs. Maine (1:30 p.m., ESPN+, SEC Network+)
Best case: Before a withering three-game stretch to end the season, this game serves as respite as the Sooners’ future is showcased. Freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. sees his most significant playing time of the season and teams with freshmen wide receivers Ivan Carreon, Zion Kearney and Zion Ragins to give plenty of hope for OU’s offensive future as the Sooners preserve the health of their regulars.
Worst case: The Black Bears are overmatched but scrappy and keep the game in question into early in the second half at least. OU isn’t able to get their starters much in the way of rest as the Sooners can’t find much in the way of rhythm on either side of the ball.
-Ryan Aber
Nov. 9 at Missouri (2:30-3:30 p.m. or 5-7 p.m.)
Best case: OU blows out its old Big 12 rival on the road with ease. Arnold finds his groove and looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. Luther Burden III causes the Sooners’ defense a few problems but outside of him the Tigers struggle. Brady Cook turns the ball over a few times and OU fans get to rejoice at Missouri’s expense after numerous recruiting losses to the Tigers in recent years.
Worst case: Missouri proves to be the team pundits are predicting them to be. Burden is too much for the Sooners’ defense and Eliah Drinkwitz is suddenly at the top of coaching hot boards for open top-tier SEC jobs.
-Colton Sulley
More: OU football from A to Z: Everything you need to know about 2024 Oklahoma Sooners
Nov. 23 vs. Alabama (2:30-3:30 p.m. or 5-7 p.m.)
Best case: In the biggest home game for the Sooners in quite some time, OU solidifies their College Football Playoff position and stays in contention for the SEC Championship Game with a win over the Crimson Tide that knocks Alabama out of contention for both. Arnold stays in Heisman Trophy contention with another gem of a game.
Worst case: With injuries pushing players who aren’t quite ready into the rotation, the Sooners crumble as they’re eliminated from bowl contention with another tough game still remaining on the schedule. Alabama steamrolls the Sooners to keep the Crimson Tide’s CFP and SEC title game hopes alive while OU is left to play out the string with little to look forward to other than next season.
-Ryan Aber
Nov. 30 at LSU (2:30-3:30 p.m. or 5-7 p.m.)
Best case: OU picks up its best road win since defeating Ohio State in 2017 and by season's end, the Sooners look like they’ll be competitive in the SEC moving forward. Arnold torches an LSU defense that looks like it did in 2023, and Venables and Alley’s defense cements itself as OU’s best in more than a decade.
Worst case: The Sooners fall apart in one of the best atmospheres in the country. OU is swamped up by the noise of Death Valley and Arnold’s turnover woes lead to a tough loss to end the season.
-Colton Sulley
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OU football's best-case, worst-case scenario with 2024 schedule
