Poll: Harris leads Trump by 10% in Virginia but uncertainty about candidates still remains

RICHMOND – A new poll taken before Tuesday night’s presidential debate and released the day after shows Vice Presidential Kamala Harris with a 10% lead over former president Donald Trump among Virginia voters if the election were to be held right now.

While the overall lead stood at double-digits, one aspect of the poll – a question on who to trust for economic growth – had Harris with a slim 1% advantage over Trump. Neither one also showed any success in having voters cross party lines, with both firmly entrenched as the preferred party pick.

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The Fall Commonwealth Poll, from the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University, was conducted Aug. 26-Sept. 6. Poll directors say they plan to conduct a second survey to gauge opinions from the televised Philadelphia debate.

This was the first poll taken by the Wilder School since Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee in July. In that poll, Trump led Biden 39%-36% but the difference fell within the poll’s margin of error, making the race a statistical tie.

The margin of error for the latest poll was 5%

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In a statement accompanying the poll results, former Gov. Douglas Wilder, the school’s namesake, said the difference showed Harris’ support of reproductive rights “resonated well with respondents.

“They also showed that Trump did not improve his numbers relative to who would best handle inflation, the economy and health care,” Wilder said. As for what he thought the post-debate polls might show, the former governor said, “It seems that Harris gained from the debate, while Trump’s numbers were in decline."

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If you had to vote today ...

Harris’ lead over Trump stemmed primarily from questioning the respondents about having to make an immediate choice if the election were to be held today. If that were to happen, 46% said they would go with Harris and 36% with Trump.

Among politically aligned voters, eight out of every 10 said they would side with their party nominee [80% for Trump among Republicans, and 81% of Democrats for Harris].

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Harris did not poll well among those voters claiming to be independent. Nineteen percent of independents said they would support her compared to 26% for Trump and 11% undecided.

The most notable stat from independent voters? Twenty-two percent said they do not plan to vote.

Wilder linked Trump’s lead among independents to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ending his independent presidential run and backing Trump.

In July, 27% of the independents backed Kennedy and 16% supported Trump.

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Dollars drive voters' concerns

The economy remains the top issue for voters, according to the latest poll. Thirty-eight percent cited cost-of-living increases as the No. 1 concern, followed by 21% for women’s reproductive rights and 10% for immigration.

The top three issues remain unchanged from the summer poll, but organizers said they noticed a shift in priorities among Democratic voters. This time around, the economy replaced reproductive rights as the top issue.

Money remained the top concern for Republican and independent voters.

That shift was also reflected when voters were asked if they trusted Harris or Trump more with turning the U.S. economic picture around. Among party-affiliated voters, 38% said they liked Harris, and 37% went with Trump.

Independent voters showed more discontent with both. While 36% of independents would trust Trump and 15% would trust Harris, 34% said they did not trust either one.

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Bill Atkinson (he/him/his) is an award-winning journalist who covers breaking news, government and politics. Reach him at batkinson@progress-index.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @BAtkinson_PI.

This article originally appeared on The Progress-Index: Harris leads Trump in new VCU voter poll