Pro-Israel groups stay out of Ilhan Omar, Don Samuels rematch so far

The powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee vowed to spend as much as $100 million this year to unseat members of the progressive "Squad."

On paper, that would make U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, one of the founding members of the Squad and deputy chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, a top priority as she faces off in the Aug. 13 primary race against fellow Democrat Don Samuels. Omar and her fellow Squad members have been vocal supporters of a ceasefire in the war in Gaza and a frequent critic of Israel.

The PAC just spent over $14 million to help Democrat George Latimer oust Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a fellow Squad member and critic of Israel and the war. The investment helped carry Latimer to an overwhelming victory.

Samuels, a moderate Democrat and former Minneapolis City Council member, lost to Omar in the 2022 primary by just 2,466 votes.

But with less than a month to go until the primary, AIPAC and other major pro-Israel groups, including the Democratic Majority for Israel and AIPAC's affiliated super PAC, United Democracy Project, have yet to spend a dime in the Minnesota race. It could suggests they view Omar as too difficult to unseat this year..

"I think they know that Congressman Omar is an extremely strong incumbent and has shored up a lot of local support and also has a pretty incredible record in the district of not only things like constituent services, but also leading on policies and initiatives that actually help everyday people in that district," said Usamah Andrabi, the communications director of Justice Democrats, a PAC that supports members of the Squad. "I think they know that she is a deeply formidable threat, and that's not to say that they won't spend money against her even so."

AIPAC unsuccessfully tried to recruit other candidates to run against Omar, including Minneapolis City Councilmember LaTrisha Vetaw. Samuels announced his rematch against Omar in November.

Omar has since racked up endorsements from many top lawmakers and influential progressive groups across the state. Samuels has publicly touted just one union endorsement from the United Steelworkers and the International Union of Operating Engineers. Omar has also has significantly outraised Samuels.

Omar entered July with $1.8 million cash on hand after having raised $1.6 million in the second quarter of the year. Samuels entered the same period with just over $334,000 cash on hand, and raised $535,000 in the second quarter.

"If you're going to go spend millions of dollars and you're AIPAC and you look up and 90% of the Minneapolis delegation, 80% of the Minneapolis City Council, half of the county board supports her, you're probably trying to figure out if that's a wise investment or not, right?" said Jeff Hayden, a former state senator and Democratic strategist from Minneapolis.

Samuels has also had to answer to remarks he made about Omar's appearance and for calling her a "pawn for Hamas," which the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR-MN) condemned.

"[Pro-Israel groups] really don't like Ilhan Omar. I don't think there's any doubt about that, but they just don't see the probability of a win there being adequate enough to justify a substantial investment," said Larry Jacobs, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance.

In 2022, Samuels received $350,000 in last-minute help from UDP shortly before the primary. And in 2020, Omar's primary challenger, Antone Melton-Meaux, raised nearly half a million dollars from pro-Israel groups.

Samuels' campaign says it has met with pro-Israel advocacy groups including AIPAC and DMFI and believe there is still time for them to step in and help. The fact that they have not already shows they have misread the district, Samuels said.

"They're out of touch with the district, out of touch with the mood of the district, out of touch with just how negative Ilhan is perceived. And certainly, certainly out of touch with the viability of my campaign and me as a candidate," Samuels said in an interview.

Though he wants help from the groups, Samuels said, he's focused on running a grassroots campaign. His campaign said 60% of his contributions have been $100 or less and have come from Minnesota. Samuels released his first TV ad this month.

"AIPAC is deeply unpopular with voters in the Fifth District and her opponent knows that," Omar spokesperson Jacklyn Rogers said in a statement. "Yet Don Samuels and his campaign actively courts AIPAC to jump into the race. We know AIPAC raises money from mega Republican donors and then spends that money in Democratic primaries against Democrats."

Requests for comment were not returned by DMFI or UDP. An AIPAC spokesperson said the group is "continuing to evaluate races that involve detractors of the U.S.-Israel relationship," when asked if they plan to back Samuels.

For now, AIPAC has turned its attention to Squad member Cori Bush in Missouri, who faces an Aug. 6 primary. But the groups could still weigh in late, during the closing weeks of the campaign, or even next cycle.

"They will hope that somebody got the message and if they didn't get the message, look for them to be back in the next cycle, make an example out of one person," New York based Democratic Hank Sheinkopf said. "The logic here is that people say, 'Well, you did it once, go out and do it again,' but suppose you don't win this time? What leverage do you really have?"