Steven Johnson: Three reasons why TCU will or won’t advance to the national championship

It’s been a minute, but we’re finally back for the next edition of Three Reasons Why.

This could be the final edition of the year. Or we could have one more next week. It all depends on whether or not TCU can keep its run going and beat No. 2 Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl on Saturday.

The contrast in styles and coaches makes the game fascinating. There are many pundits that don’t expect TCU will be able to hang with the Big 10 powerhouse.

The Horned Frogs have heard the same storylines before, so it’s no big deal. TCU knows it has to prove itself on the field once again.

As for the outcome of the game, there’s a path for the Horned Frogs to advance to the national championship game.

Here’s three reasons TCU’s playoff run will continue or end on New Year’s Eve.

Three reasons why TCU will beat No. 2 Michigan

1. Battle-tested: While the Wolverines cruised through their Big 10 schedule, the Horned Frogs battled through the gauntlet of the Big 12. Whether it’s overtime wins or second half comebacks, TCU has had to overcome adversity time after time this season.

Michigan may have edge in experience (this being the Wolverines’ second straight CFP appearance), the Horned Frogs can counter with their comfort in close games. If it’s a close game in the fourth quarter then TCU will be the more comfortable squad as the pressure mounts and that will matter.

2. The secondary: It’s hard to see TCU getting a win without forcing a turnover or two. That hasn’t been a problem all season with ballhawks like Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, Bud Clark and Josh Newton. Can they do it against J.J. McCarthy? The Michigan quarterback has only thrown three interceptions all season.

However, accuracy has been an issue at times for the young quarterback. McCarthy closed the year with four straight games where he completed 53% or less of his passes. TCU will have their chances to secure a game-changing turnover and they’ll have to capitalize.

3. Kendre Miller: As important as it for Max Duggan to ball out against the Wolverines, Miller could end up being the difference. As brilliant as Duggan is, TCU will need a balanced offense to crack the top-ranked Michigan defense. Miller has the speed and power to earn the tough yards and become just the second running back to rush for 100 yards against the Wolverines.

Remember, it was Miller who broke the game open against Texas and Texas Tech. An 100-yard performance with a touchdown or two is what TCU will need and he’s capable of providing that.

Three reasons why TCU’s run comes to an end

1. Michigan’s O-line: The key matchup of this game will be in the trenches. Can Dylan Horton and freshman Damonic Williams create enough penetration against an offensive line that was voted the best in the country? The run defense is much better than last year, but TCU is still allowing almost 150 yards on the ground per game.

Baylor and Kansas State had success running the ball at the end of the season. Michigan will expect to do the same.

2. McCarthy’s legs: Players and coaches have talked all week about McCarthy’s ability to extend plays and get outside the pocket. His rushing numbers won’t jump off the screen, but stats don’t tell the full story. He’s had multiple games with at least 50 yards rushing and numerous 20-plus yard runs.

That doesn’t even account for how he’s able to buy time for his receivers to get open. If TCU can’t get enough pressure and find a way to keep him inside the pocket, it could be a long day for TCU’s talented secondary.

3. Defense is legit: The defensive numbers Michigan has produced despite the loss of some of its stars really is eye-opening and they suggest that this is far and away the best defense TCU has faced this season. The corner combination of D.J. Turner and Will Johnson could make life tough on Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis. Defensive lineman Mazi Smith is an NFL talent and Junior Colson has nearly 100 tackles.

If the Michigan defense is as advertised then it’ll make like tough on stars like Duggan. If the Wolverines hold TCU under 20 points then it’ll likely result in a loss for the Horned Frogs.