A Swift surge of voters? What this week's data says about new Pa. voter registration

Last week brought a rising tide that floated all political boats in Pennsylvania with a major spike in new voter registrations across all parties.

More than 30,000 people registered to vote between Sept. 9 and Sept. 15, the single-largest weekly influx of new voters in 2024 and almost doubling the 16,038 new voters registered last week, according to Pennsylvania Department of State voter registration data updated Monday. That new voter surge came the same week that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump squared off in a presidential debate and a high-profile celebrity endorsement for Harris came from Taylor Swift.

Republicans took the lead for new registrations last week, with the GOP’s 12,076 new voters pushing the party ahead of 10,785 new Democratic voters. Democrats were leading Republicans since late July.

Roughly 7,296 other party or unaffiliated voters also registered last week compared to 4,052 voters the week before.

There have been 327,893 new voters registered this year so far. Republicans make up about 121,270 (37%) of those new voters, Democrats make up about 113,781 (35%) of that total and independents and unaffiliated voters make up about 28% with 92,842 new voters.

Post-debate Swiftie surge in voter registration?

An Instagram post from Swift endorsing Harris just after last Tuesday’s debate garnered more than 10 million likes and may have sent more than 400,000 people to vote.gov, a website that directs users to state election websites with state-specific voting information.

Swift, a Berks County native, included a link to vote.gov in her post, but it’s unclear how many of the website’s visitors actually registered to vote after visiting the election information hub online.

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Pennsylvania’s voter rolls provide a voter’s registration date, but they can’t provide any insight on why a person registered or the exact hour that they filled out a registration form.

Based on registration dates, last Tuesday seems to have had a significant impact on driving up voter registrations.

The day before the debate, Sept. 9, had the largest increase of new voters than any other day last week and the most new registrations in a single day in 2024.

Mondays are also the most common day for new registrations, but county election offices are typically closed on the weekends. Any voter registrations that come in on Saturday or Sunday might not be processed until Monday.

The day of the debate itself was actually a low point for registrations compared to most the week, with only 4,239 new voters.

The days that followed the debate and Swift’s endorsement saw nearly 16,000 people sign up to vote, a three-day total that rivals the new voter counts of any single week in August.

Approximately 5,899 people registered to vote last Wednesday (the second-highest day this year for new voters). Another 5,759 voters registered Thursday (the third-highest day) and Friday saw 5,079 new voters (the fifth-highest day for new voters this year).

New voter registrations tend to grow at a quickening pace as a primary or election approaches, with presidential elections often the largest draw for new voters.

Reviews of voter data by this news organization over the past few years have shown that major events, such as the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13 or President Joe Biden dropping out of the race a week later, can further boost that momentum.

Regardless of the cause — Swift’s endorsement, the debate or both — last week drove more people to register to vote in Pennsylvania than spikes seen the week of the July attempted assassination of Trump on July 13 or the week after Biden dropped out.

Pa. voter registration trends

There are currently more than 8.9 million registered voters in Pennsylvania, roughly 68% of the commonwealth’s Census-estimated 13 million residents.

Democrats still lead the state in total voters with 3.92 million registered compared to 3.58 million Republicans.

While Democrats continue to hold an advantage for total voters over the GOP, that lead of 343,071 voters is part of a downward trend.

Near the start of September, Democrats had a 350,774-voter lead over Republicans. In 2022, Democrats led Republicans by more than 500,000 voters.

In November 2020, when there were a little more than 9 million registered voters, Democrats had 4.22 million voters to the Republicans’ 3.54 million, a difference of 685,818 voters.

More about Pa. voter changes in 2024: What recent Pa. voter registration data tells us about momentum heading into Election Day

It’s worth noting that voter turnout is ultimately more important than the total number of voters registered to a specific party. A voter’s party doesn’t dictate how they will vote.

The 2020 election went to Biden by 80,555 votes out of more than 6.9 million ballots cast, roughly 76% turnout for all registered voters then.

About 6.16 million currently registered voters also voted in 2020, with about 46% of those voters Democrats, 42% Republican and 12% belonging to another party or no party at all.

More information about how to register, where to vote and the deadlines for voting by mail can be found at your county’s board of elections website or online with the state department at vote.pa.gov.

The final day to register to vote in Pennsylvania is Oct. 21. The last day to register for a mail-in or civilian absentee ballot is Oct. 29.

Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Nov. 5.

This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Debate, Swift endorsement sets record new voters to Pa.this year