New Trump is a lot like old Trump. Will 2016 tactics work in 2024?
The calendar says 2024. But for Donald Trump and his Republican presidential campaign, the last few days have felt like 2016 all over again.
Trump has ditched his post-assassination attempt unity argument and rebuffed calls from his party's elected GOP stalwarts who'd prefer their presidential nominee focus on Democrats’ policies. Instead, the former president who hopes voters will send him back to the White House in November has settled into a familiar series of deeply personal attacks on his Democratic opponent, including inflammatory remarks about race.
Trump isn't just battling with his partisan rivals. He also continues to feud with wayward Republicans and focus on his personal obsessions, such as crowd size.
The GOP presidential nominee once was thought to be running a more disciplined campaign. But not anymore as he struggles to adjust to facing Vice President Kamala Harris instead of President Joe Biden in a contest that just a few weeks ago seemed over and now is back to toss-up status. Key battleground states steadily are shifting away from Trump's outright favor as Harris boosts Democratic enthusiasm, raises large sums of money and draws big crowds.
Unable to counteract Harris’ momentum and increasingly lashing out with harsher attacks reminiscent of 2016, some in Trump's party view his latest tactics as counterproductive - even if they previously proved effective in delivering him the presidency.
“Trump should stick to issues and values and avoid demeaning personality attacks,” former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a close Trump ally who was a finalist to be his running mate in 2016, told USA TODAY. “The personal attacks boomerang and hurt Trump.”
Can Trump turn Harris into Clinton?
During a brief stretch following the July 13 assassination attempt, Trump talked about unity and trying to bring the country together. But that didn't last long. He has since reverted to the cutthroat politics that characterized his first campaign.
A rookie politician who had long been famous for his real estate and media ventures, Trump shocked and offended much of the country eight years ago from the moment he came down the escalator in Trump Tower and declared his presidential bid with a screed against illegal immigrants. From there, Trump belittled his way through the White House campaign by mocking his primary opponents as "low energy Jeb" Bush, "Little Marco" Rubio and "Lyin' Ted" Cruz. And then "Crooked Hillary" Clinton in the general election.
Trump won in 2016 despite a long list of inflammatory remarks, from the Access Hollywood tape that captured him bragging about grabbing women's genitals to disputing that now deceased U.S. Sen. John McCain was a war hero after his time as a prisoner in Vietnam.
Trump reprised his caustic 2016 campaign in 2020, but by then the incumbent president was facing significant backlash after four years of a chaotic and controversial White House that included Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation, an impeachment and a mob of his supporters storming the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to overturn the election results. He slammed Biden as "sleepy Joe," repeatedly questioned his mental fitness and accused him of running a "basement campaign" for president during the deadly coronavirus pandemic. The Republican president ended up losing states such as Georgia and Arizona that Democrats hadn't carried in years.
Many in the GOP have bristled at various times over Trump's approach, but most have eventually rallied around him. Fast forward to 2024, and Republicans are concerned that Trump seems to be returning to that 2016 formula as he struggles to change the trajectory of the current race.
He has labeled Harris “low IQ,” questioned her racial identity and mocked her name, which has left some in the party uncomfortable and critics calling him racist. While much of what Trump has done in the past was viewed as controversial, a mistake or undisciplined, he often came away without being hurt politically and in some cases his efforts may have even helped him. Some analysts believe Trump's tactics may be less effective now.
“They’re going to have a hard time creating the same animosity toward Harris in two months that Hillary Clinton created over 25 years," said Mike DuHaime, a GOP consultant and the former political director for the Republican National Committee who argued Harris has much less baggage than Clinton and will be harder to demonize.
'His shtick is getting kinda tired'
There's plenty of evidence to suggest that Trump's then-unique approach to campaigning in 2016 could be problematic in 2024. Back then, many voters found Trump's slash-and-burn style to be refreshing, novel, and direct; eight years later, analysts say, Trump's aggressive attacks come across as mean, repetitive, and out-of-touch.
"His shtick is getting kinda tired," said former Trump White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham.
Grisham, a former supporter turned critic, said she is exhausted hearing Trump constantly denigrate the country in an effort to target Harris (or Biden). She singled out Trump's recent praise of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin over a hostage deal that saw Americans and others held in Russia released in exchange for the release of Russians held abroad. "He couldn't even celebrate — for just a minute — great news for our country," she said.
Pollster Frank Luntz said voters who in 2016 found Trump to be "candid" and "outspoken" and "direct" are looking for more substance in 2024. But he warned they're not getting it from the former president.
"The public is starting to say, 'enough already,'" said Luntz, who conducts focus groups of voters and has worked for GOP candidates in the past. "Enough with being mean — just do your job."
Trump can't win with just his conservative base, Luntz said. He has to reach out to more moderate voters who are increasingly turned off by Trump's long-used tactics. As a result, Harris is emerging as a frontrunner in the newly-configured presidential race.
"Trump is unable to focus on the two issues that most people care about, inflation and immigration," Luntz said. "But he sticks with ad hominem attacks."
GOP frets about Trump's lack of discipline
Never a disciplined politician, Trump's tendencies have been particularly pronounced lately. During an Aug. 3 rally in Atlanta, Trump spent time complaining that the venue - which Harris had packed days earlier - wasn't letting enough of his supporters in, feuding with other Republicans and praising Putin.
Trump also criticized Georgia GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, the leading political figure in a state Trump desperately needs to win.
Nonpartisan handicappers have moved Georgia from a state that leans Republican to toss-up status in recent days as Harris makes gains. Alienating Kemp could hurt Trump’s chances of winning the state.
“It’s really bad, foolish politics to go after the most popular person in a battleground state who actually happens to be of your own party," DuHaime said.
Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt disputed criticism that the campaign has been undisciplined and counterproductive in how it's trying to reach voters.
“We are the most message-disciplined campaign that the Republican Party has ever seen and it is because we are led by President Trump who remains on message every single day,” Leavitt said.
Harris’ honeymoon already is starting to “dissipate,” Leavitt argued, adding that her record and left-wing views will weigh down her campaign.
The Trump campaign is confidant "once voters fully understand how dangerously liberal her record is and how liberal her running mate Tim Walz is as well that they will turn away from Kamala Harris and decide to vote for President Trump,” she said.
Trump told reporters this week he saw no need to change his ways in light of the new challenge from Harris, and predicted he will easily win the presidential election. "I haven't recalibrated strategy at all," he said.
The evidence still points to an ongoing boost of energy behind the Harris campaign, though, one that is likely to continue through the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which kicks off on Aug. 19.
DuHaime said he believes Harris' late summer momentum gives her the advantage now. The race reminds him of the last presidential contest in 2020, where Biden made Trump a one-term president.
“Anytime he's not talking about the economy, inflation, etc. he's making a mistake," DuHaime said, adding: "He needs to kind of get back on message. My feeling, this feels a lot more like 2020 again... It’s becoming a referendum back on him, where as before Biden got out it was a referendum on Biden.”
'He's in the process of losing it'
With the Trump campaign struggling to define Harris negatively, the Democratic convention will give her a chance to try and cement a more positive view among voters while honing criticism of her Republican rival as selfish, dangerous and unhinged. Trump is the first former president convicted of a crime, and he still faces additional federal and state charges that he's pleaded not guilty to.
Trump's chaotic and slapdash campaign style is exposing him to questions about his mental acuity, the same kinds of issues he once raised against 81-year-old Biden. Trump turned 78 in June and has become the oldest major party nominee in history; his tactics are now being turned against him in that context.
After a Thursday news conference in which Trump replayed his greatest hits — slashing political opponents, ranting about the news media, grossly exaggerating the sizes of his rally crowds — and generated fresh controversy by telling a story about a helicopter ride with former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown that Brown disputes, the Harris campaign released a statement mocking "the public meltdown" of a struggling candidate.
"He hasn’t campaigned all week," the statement said. "He isn’t going to a single swing state this week. But he sure is mad Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are getting big crowds across the battlegrounds."
Yet even as Harris has completely changed the dynamics of the race, Trump still appears to have a strong chance of winning. Political handicappers have moved more swing states into toss up territory, but polling averages show the race essentially remains tied in the states that matter most.
And surveys indicate Trump still has an advantage on key issues such as immigration and the economy. “Harris changes the race from age and capacity to ideology and performance,” Gingrich said. “The more Trump can focus on the performance gap and the issue difference the more likely he will defeat her.”
While Luntz said the campaign is still Trump’s to lose, the prominent pollster quickly added "he's in the process of losing it."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Donald Trump's campaign is struggling as Kamala Harris gains momentum
