Series to watch over the final month of the MLB season: Division races, wild-card battles, home-field advantage on the line

Jordan Shusterman

With a month left to go in the regular season, the postseason picture is slowly starting to come into focus. As things stand now, the final month of play appears more likely to determine the hierarchy of the postseason field than the teams actually in it. FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the 12 teams currently in postseason position at least an 80% chance of securing a ticket to the dance, with just three other teams (Red Sox, Mariners, Mets) given more than a 10% chance of reaching the postseason.

On the surface, these odds suggest a lack of drama to anticipate in September. But given how close together the teams at the very top sit in the standings, there is still much to be decided in the coming weeks, including multiple division races that will determine who secures home-field advantage and/or a first-round bye.

Starting this weekend, there are approximately nine series remaining for each team. Here’s a look ahead at the best weekday and weekend series left on the calendar — and the potential stakes involved in each.

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After taking three of four in Cleveland this week, the Royals face another difficult test on the road, with four games at Minute Maid Park. We’ll see if they can keep proving that they belong in the postseason mix.

With the Braves sitting five games behind Philadelphia at the outset of this four-game series, this is the last real chance for Atlanta to make its rival sweat atop the NL East as we enter the season’s final month.

Even more than Atlanta’s series in Philadelphia, these four games for the D-backs represent a massive opportunity to make a real push toward the top of the division, especially considering the Snakes are only three games behind L.A. and get to play these games at home.

Did you know that the best record in the American League since the start of July belongs to the 30-20 Detroit Tigers?! And sure enough, the team coming to Comerica Park this weekend is the team that sits just 1.5 games ahead of them in the standings, the Red Sox. It’s probably unrealistic to consider Detroit a real threat to make the current wild-card teams nervous, but this series is worth monitoring.

Kansas City has already clinched the season series against Cleveland — a relevant note should tiebreakers come into play at the end of the season — but every divisional game carries significant weight in the surprisingly intense AL Central race, and these games are no different.

These teams occupy similar positions in their respective leagues’ playoff races as the first alternates to the three teams currently in the wild-card picture, but optimism has certainly waned in recent weeks. Both teams’ playoff odds peaked above 50% in July but have plummeted recently due to their own poor play and improved showings from the teams they’re chasing.

While the Cardinals have made three trips to Seattle over the past decade, this, remarkably, will be the Mariners’ first time playing in St. Louis since September 2013. Both teams are clinging to relevance in their respective wild-card races, with Seattle still having the alternate path to the postseason via an AL West title if it can chase down Houston.

This is a juicy interleague matchup between baseball’s two best teams since the start of June. The series finale will be featured on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.

Another tiebreaker note: Minnesota has already clinched the season series over Kansas City, but these games could determine positioning at or near the top of the AL Central.

A stretch for the Royals of six consecutive series against teams in postseason position concludes with three games in the Bronx before they head to Pittsburgh for a relative breather. If Kansas City can emerge from this difficult stretch still within striking distance of first place, the path to a stunning division title gets much easier from there.

Seattle was still in first place in the AL West when it took two games from the Padres in San Diego in early July, while the Padres were clinging to the third NL wild-card spot. The pressure seems more likely to be on the Mariners when these two West Coast squads square off for two more games next month at T-Mobile Park.

The Cubs are the NL’s version of the Tigers, having played their way back into the fringes of the wild-card race, where we can no longer disregard them entirely. With one of baseball’s easiest remaining schedules, there’s a path for Chicago to make things interesting. Although they don’t face any of the teams they’re actually chasing over the final month, this series at Dodger Stadium will offer a nice chance for the Cubs to prove that they aren’t as bad as their miserable May and June suggested.

By this point, the standings might say otherwise, but four games in September between baseball’s biggest rivals are still a safe bet to attract eyeballs. Even if Boston is out of it by then, the Red Sox will still enjoy the chance to derail the Yankees’ push for an AL East title.

Any regular-season series between the two winningest teams in the NL over the past half-decade is going to feel important, regardless of how it impacts the postseason race. What’s different this year is that these teams aren’t each a million games ahead in their respective divisions, like we’re used to seeing come September, so the stakes might feel a bit higher for this edition of Dodgers-Braves.

Cleveland just dropped three of four at home to Kansas City but still sits atop the AL Central by a slim margin. It might not be able to afford a similar result when Minnesota comes to town for four games next month.

While both of these teams project as division winners, this series could play a huge role in determining the seeding atop the NL postseason picture, whether it be the race for the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage or trying to secure the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.

Weird things happen at Coors Field. Just because the Rockies have been one of the worst teams in baseball the past few seasons doesn’t mean that beating them on their home turf is guaranteed. The Snakes must remain vigilant in these three games if they want to maintain position in the playoff race.

These two playoff hopefuls play seven games against each other in September, with three in Arizona (Sept. 13-15) followed by this four-game set in Milwaukee. The Brewers were the D-backs’ first stop on their improbable pennant run last October; should they meet up against this postseason, the tone is sure to be quite different for both teams.

If the Mets aren’t out of the playoff picture by this point, these four games at Citi Field might represent their best — but also most challenging — opportunity to prove themselves as legitimate playoff contenders.

Should Boston manage to hang around and Minnesota fall to the back of the AL wild-card pack, this could be a highly consequential battle for the third and final AL postseason spot.

Seattle currently leads the season series with Houston 6-4, so even one win in Houston would secure the tiebreaker for the scenario in which these two teams finish even atop the AL West. Granted, that scenario would require the Mariners to play much better in the weeks leading up to this series than they have over the past month.

Last season featured the ultra-rare September in which Yankees games carried little relevance in the postseason race, while Baltimore was busy trying to fend off Tampa Bay for the top spot in the AL East. Now Baltimore is trying to win consecutive AL East titles for the first time since 1973-74, and the Yankees are the fiercest competition. These games in the Bronx should be electric.

There’s a world in which this series is a frantic fight for the third NL wild-card spot, but based on this past week’s results, I’m not so sure we’re living in that world.

It’s probably wishful thinking, given how much better the Dodgers have started to look as their offense has gotten healthy, but just imagine the Padres going into Los Angeles with a chance to seize the division lead in the final week. Now that would be entertaining.

Which series will matter most over the final four weeks of the 2024 MLB regular season? (Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)
Which series will matter most over the final four weeks of the 2024 MLB regular season? (Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports) (Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)

This could be a matchup between two division leaders who have already locked in their postseason position. Or it could be a high-stakes showdown between two wild-card teams seeking home-field advantage in the first round.

For all the success these two teams have had over the past decade, just once have they faced off in the postseason: in 2018, when the Astros swept Cleveland in the ALDS. Might that change in 2024? At the very least, this should be a fun regular-season finale between two teams gearing up for another postseason run.

While it’s a little strange to see teams finish the regular season with an interleague series, it’s fun when said series can have an impact on both leagues’ postseason pictures. With how these two teams have played recently, they might have playoff spots secured long before this three-game set in Atlanta, but it’s very possible that these games will mean something for at least one of the participants.

Having played the first 10 games of their season series — which they split 5-5 — before the All-Star break, these division rivals will have to wait until the final weekend to square off one more time in a series that could end up determining who hosts the best-of-three wild-card set.

The Dodgers might have the NL West wrapped up by this point, but it’s quite possible they’ll still be fighting with Philadelphia and/or Milwaukee for seeding in the NL. Coors Field could also serve as a nice venue for Shohei Ohtani to put the finishing touches on arguably the greatest single season by a DH in MLB history — and likely a third MVP award.

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