What's next in the Atlantic following Helene?
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The AccuWeather RealVue Satellite on Friday afternoon shows Hurricane Isaac (top right), Tropical Storm Joyce (bottom right) and the mass of clouds associated with Helene over the eastern United States (top left). |
The breeding grounds of Helene may spawn a new named tropical storm during the first days of October, AccuWeather hurricane experts warn.
"The Central American gyre is very active at the moment, and there is the potential for one or more systems to develop from this broad circulation through the first days of October," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck said.
Within this tropical gyre, the air is not only rotating counterclockwise, but it is also rising. Rising air generates clouds, showers and thunderstorms, which can then organize into a tropical depression or storm under the right conditions.
There is a medium risk of tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico from Oct. 1-4. Helene's beginning was in a similar zone, in the water south of Cuba and west of Jamaica.
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According to AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin, an area of high pressure is forecast to be centered over the eastern United States during the second half of next week, which may push any brewing tropical storm farther west when compared to Helene's path.
"At this early stage, however, it is too early to rule out any possibilities regarding the future track of a potential tropical storm," DePodwin stated.
All interests from Mexico to the Gulf Coast of the United States are urged to remain vigilant to the latest developments in the tropical Atlantic.
An uptick in tropical downpours and rough seas is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula and eastern coast of Mexico later next week regardless of tropical development. Heavy rain, gusty winds and dangerous seas would extend toward part of the Gulf Coast should a brewing storm jog to the north.
The same Central American gyre may also spawn tropical development in the eastern Pacific Ocean in early October. By this point, John will have officially dissipated after becoming a "zombie storm" and flooding southwestern Mexico for days.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Isaac and newly-formed Tropical Storm Joyce will roam through open waters into next week, posing a risk to shipping interests only.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has produced 10 named storms and six hurricanes thus far, with more than two months left to go before its official end.
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