What's next after Harris' VP pick: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, we dive into Vice President Kamala Harris’ selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate — what it means for Democrats, Republicans, and the 2024 election, and what the path forward for both campaigns is from here.
Editor’s note: From the Politics Desk is taking a quick break after today’s edition. We’ll be back on Monday, August 12.
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Harris made her pick — here’s what’s next
By NBC News staff
Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential running mate, adding a popular Midwestern state executive to the Democratic ticket as the party gears up to hold onto key northern battleground states this fall.
Adam Edelman, Monica Alba, Peter Alexander, Yamiche Alcindor and Gabe Gutierrez report here on Walz’s record enacting progressive legislation in Minnesota and his roots in a red-trending district during his dozen years in the House. He enlisted in the National Guard when he was 17 and served for more than two decades, with both domestic and overseas deployments. He later worked as a high school teacher and football coach in Mankato, about 80 miles south of Minneapolis.
But what may have clinched the job interview for the Minnesotan is that Harris had very strong chemistry with Walz when they met Sunday at her residence, according to four sources familiar with the selection process.
That played a key role in her decision because it was clearer with him than with the other top contenders. Harris also appreciates how different Walz is from her in terms of the contrast he can provide, the sources said.
Meanwhile, Walz starts the campaign broadly unknown nationally, Mark Murray notes: A new NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Tuesday showed 71% of Americans saying they didn’t have an opinion about Walz or had never heard of him. Another 17% viewed him favorably, while 12% viewed him unfavorably.
Both campaigns will now race to define him, and Republicans are starting off by casting Walz as an agent of the far left, per Henry J. Gomez and Matt Dixon.
Trump’s campaign talking points said Walz’s elevation rounds out a “team of radicals.” Dave McCormick, the Trump-backed Republican Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, branded Harris-Walz as “the most liberal presidential ticket in history.” Others took similar tacks.
“The biggest problem with Tim Walz ... is what it says about Kamala Harris — that, when given an opportunity, she will bend the knee to the most radical elements of her party,” GOP vice presidential nominee JD Vance said during a campaign appearance in Philadelphia earlier Tuesday. “That’s exactly what she did here. That’s what she’s going to keep on doing as president.”
Tuesday night, Harris and Walz started defining him on their own terms — leaning into Walz’s middle-class roots, Army National Guard service and accomplishments in office to make their own case as well as one against the Trump-Vance ticket. From there, the sprint is on to see whose message resonates more over the next three months.
Tim Walz’s election results don’t show a clear blue-collar boost
By Steve Kornacki
Vice President Kamala Harris’ tactical calculation with her running mate pick is that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz could provide a decisive boost in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — three states that, if Democrats can hold onto them, would make their ticket highly likely to win.
One of the Democrats’ chief challenges in these states is in blue-collar and small-town areas, where the party once ran competitively (or at least respectably) before the floor fell out amid and after Donald Trump’s emergence in 2016. The thinking is that Walz’s own story and style will be relatable and reassuring to some of these voters, blunting at least part of the Trump GOP’s newfound dominance.
There’s a catch, though: Walz wasn’t able to do this himself in his last campaign.
One way to measure this is by looking at county-level results. Forty-nine of Minnesota’s 87 counties might be considered “Trump surge” counties; that is, Republicans ran at least 20 points better there under Trump in 2016 and 2020 than they had in the 2012 election, when Mitt Romney was the GOP nominee. These counties are all part of Greater Minnesota, many are rural, and virtually all are overwhelmingly white. The share of white adults without four-year degrees in these counties ranges from 72% to 85%.
Here is how Walz’s performance in them compares to Biden’s in 2020 and Obama’s in 2012:
Then there’s the flip side. There are eight Minnesota counties that you might call “blue surge” counties — the only places in the state where Democrats performed better in 2020 under Biden than they had in 2012 under Obama. They include the heart of the Twin Cities (Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, home of Minneapolis and St. Paul) and their densely populated, college degree-rich suburbs.
Here is how Walz compares to Biden and Obama in the counties:
In his ’22 campaign, Walz’s coalition looked just like what has become the standard, post-Obama coalition for Democrats. He rolled up massive margins in metro areas and took a beating practically everywhere else. To boost the ticket in those states beyond what’s become the Democratic Party norm, Walz will need to break through Trump-era polarization in the kinds of places he wasn’t able to in 2022.
🗞️ Today’s top stories
📰 <strong>Where he stands:</strong> The Minnesota Star Tribune breaks down where Walz stands on a slew of key issues. <a href="https://www.startribune.com/kamala-harris-vp-tim-walz-beliefs-issues/600849837">Read more →</a>
🗣️ <strong>Border line:</strong> Harris is looking to take a potential weakness head-on, ramping up her rhetoric focused on immigration. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-talking-immigration-allies-think-political-advantage-rcna165211">Read more →</a>
🗳️ <strong>Voters gonna vote:</strong> Four states – Missouri, Washington, Kansas and Michigan – are holding primaries on Tuesday, with several key races to watch. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/squad-member-trump-impeaching-republican-defense-watch-tuesdays-primar-rcna165121">Read more →</a>
🐻 <strong>No fine for RFK Jr.:</strong> It’s too late for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to face a financial penalty for dumping a dead bear cub in Central Park. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-faced-fine-dumping-dead-bear-central-park-rcna165275">Read more →</a>
🎸 <strong>Walz’s Glory Days:</strong> A big fan of the Boss, Walz proclaimed March 5 as Bruce Springsteen Day in Minnesota, per the New York Times. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/06/us/politics/bruce-springsteen-tim-walz.html">Read more →</a>
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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