Where Cincinnati Reds must search to find October in 2025 after getting lost in 2024

Now that the Cincinnati Reds have officially started playing for next year after Wednesday night’s elimination, the most important part of that effort involves deciding what this year taught them.

And getting that right.

Because if 2025 is a reasonable facsimile of what went down (face first) this year, then the whole so-called plan starts to become the problem.

The first big lesson to figure out:

Was this season’s disappointment acceptable as part of a larger, multiyear competitive arc that began with the yearlong roster stripping that began after the 2021-22 lockout? And if so, does that justify a glass-half-full judgment of 2024 as part of a process that included some successes that overlooks an ugly May and losing season because of unforeseen injuries to key players?

Or was 2024 a wasted, real opportunity to win that can’t be explained away by injuries and youth?

Reds 2025 Hunter Greene Cincinnati Reds ace Hunter Greene ready to lead 2025 playoff charge: ‘It’s time to win’

Reds injuries Brandon Williams Cincinnati Reds LHP Brandon Williamson to undergo Tommy John surgery

And then what do you do about it?

As All-Star pitcher Hunter Greene said this week, “It’s time to win.”

Team president Nick Krall said that much by not saying anything definitive about manager David Bell’s job security as recently as last week.

So with winning-now as a mandate for next season, these are three of the most important 2024 lessons and evaluations ownership and the front office must determine to have a chance at fixing in ’25 what broke in ’24:

David Bell

Is the ahead-of-schedule success of 2023 behind the debut achievements of several prospects and, subsequently, the continued development this year of Elly De La Cruz and some of the pitchers justification for staying the course with the leadership of Bell – who also brings the pedigree of three generations of baseball acumen and a 12-year track record as a hard-nosed, overachieving big-league player to the job?

Or was an apparent lack of preparation by some young players this year, breakdowns in fundamentals and process-over-urgency messaging this year a reason to reconsider that leadership? Or maybe take a close look at the team's enormous big-league coaching staff?

Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, et al

Do you bank on the talent and depth of what has looked like a breakout season for much of the Reds homegrown starting pitching? Or do you address the fact that none of those pitchers has spent a full season in the majors without substantial time on the injured list.

Greene, the former No. 2 overall draft pick with the 100-mph fastball and $53 million contract, turned a corner this year to earn his first All-Star selection and pitch into the Cy Young conversation until landing on the IL in mid-August with a sore elbow he supposedly bruised when he inadvertently hit it on a door.

Lodolo looked even better at times this year after returning from that nearly year-long 2023 leg injury but spent four stints this year on the IL for maladies ranging from a calf strain to a blister to a middle-finger sprain.

Andrew Abbott pitched like an All-Star candidate into July but might spent the final six weeks on the IL with a sore shoulder if he’s not able to make it back under the wire next week.

Talented young lefty Brandon Williamson, who missed most of this year with a shoulder injury worked all the way back from that injury only to blow out his elbow four outings into his return and will miss next season because of Tommy John surgery.

Graham Ashcraft was demoted, promoted again, then spent most of the season on the IL with an elbow problem.

Last year’s top draft pick, Rhett Lowder, has looked excellent in his four-start debut so far. Rookie Julian Aguiar showed flashes of big-league success during his first seven starts in the majors as an injury fill-in – Thursday’s rough four-plus innings in a 15-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves notwithstanding.

"He's been really good," Bell said after Aguiar's start Thursday, adding he'll be better for the adversity. "He stepped in. We felt he was ready. He's more than done his part to show that he is."

Unless swingman Jakob Junis returns next season (which isn’t happening), the Reds don’t have a pitcher in the organization with more than 25 big-league starts in a season as they look ahead to next year.

Bats, gloves, Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain

Similar to the pitching, the Reds must determine the bankability of infielder Matt McLain's exceptional talent in the field and at the plate next season vs. the injury risk for a player that finished his 2023 rookie season on the IL with an oblique injury and missed all of this season with a shoulder injury and subsequent rib-cage injury. To say it's a critical offseason for the Reds best player last year and how the club handles him into next year is an understatement.

Meanwhile, one of the biggest deficits the Reds discovered in McLain's absence was in the field, where their overall defense was among the worst in the majors.

De La Cruz, whose 100-stolen-base pace faded perhaps naturally down the stretch, made spectacular plays at shortstop all year and also consistently muffed routine plays. Is he the long-term shortstop? Will he and the team both be better off if he moves off the physically demanding position, especially if he plans to play every day and try to get more out of his immense physical tools and speed?

Do the Reds need to make sure they have good-fielding insurance in the outfield and infield with whatever non-pitching additions they make over the winter?

The Reds don't have the resources of the Dodgers or the abundance of elite young hitting talent of the Orioles to get the answers to these questions wrong and have a chance to fix what broke this year.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Cincinnati Reds face tough questions to avoid repeat of failed season