A winter forecast fail? How accurate were Old Farmer's and Farmers' almanacs last year?

As September rolls through, the mornings in North Jersey become crisp and the days begin to shorten, all signs pointing to winter just around the corner.

The Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac, two of the longest-lived weather-predicting publications dating over 200 years, have used their own formulas to prognosticate long-range forecasts, all kept cloaked in secrecy.

While the Almanacs' secrets are allegedly under lock and key, it's no secret both claim an overall 80% accuracy in their forecasts. Both are well-loved by the masses — each publication has well over a million followers on Facebook — but let's be real: How accurate are these predictions really?

Last winter, both publications predicted a cold and snowy northeast, and while North Jersey did see a few measurable storms, winter in the Garden State was the ninth warmest on record, and snow totals were below average.

So what, if anything, did the publications accurately predict? And how similar are the two Almanacs' predictions for this winter?

El Niño fail?

The United States was enveloped in a strong weather pattern last winter known as El Niño, which refers to the warming of the Pacific Ocean. Experts say that means winter is usually warmer and drier than average across the northern top tier of the United States — New Jersey included — while states to the south are usually colder and wetter than average, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

The Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac each predicted last year's winter would buck the historical El Niño trend: The typically warm and dry weather in New Jersey during El Niño, which occur every two to seven years, would instead be mostly cold and snowy or slushy.

Their predictions were true in some ways, but off in others. New Jersey's winter temperatures were milder than average, according to Rutgers' professor and state climatologist, Dave Robinson, who compiled a winter report in March 2024.

In New Jersey between December 2023 and February 2024, 15.1 inches of precipitation fell (melted snow or rain), which was 4.6 inches below normal, Robinson said. In North Jersey, there was 22.1 inches of precipitation, which was 3.7 inches below normal, he said.

So what did the almanacs predict?

Farmers' Almanac

"For those of you living along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston, who saw a lack of wintry precipitation last winter, you should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with," the almanac predicted for last winter. The publication even used the slogan, "The BRR is back" when prognosticating a cold and blustery Northeastern winter.

The almanac also boldly stated "winter is making a comeback" to the region. While that "comeback" didn't seem to hold much ground, the almanac was accurate when it came to a few storms that hit North Jersey.

The almanac accurately predicted an artic blast with rain and snow in the East between Jan. 12 and 15, during which a storm dropped several inches across North Jersey. The almanac also predicted a possible snow event for the Northeast in mid-February, and it was nearly spot-on: A winter storm dropped snow across the region on Feb. 12 and 13, with some areas seeing more than a foot.

Old Farmer's Almanac

The oldest of the two almanacs, dating back to 1792 when George Washington was president, the weather prognosticator told those living in the Atlantic corridor — including New Jersey — to expect more snow than usual last winter.

North Jersey actually measured 18 inches below the average for any typical winter season.

The publication also pointed out three "snowiest periods" across the Northeast last year, which were the end of December, late January and mid-February.

Much like the Farmers' Almanac, the dates weren't spot on, but the storms did come in those months. We had snowstorms in December and January, but both were mid-month, not later in the month. We also had a mid-February storm.

The almanac did get it right when they predicted a milder winter than normal, but were off when it came to the timing.

They predicted the coldest air of the season in "late January into mid-February." January and February were the warmest of the three winter months, with temperatures averaging around 40 degrees in the state, Robinson said. December was actually the coldest.

'Secret' formulas of the Old Farmer's Almanac and Farmers' Almanac

For over 200 years, the Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac have predicted long-range forecasts across the nation by using formulas that each have kept cloaked in secrecy.

The Old Farmer's Almanac, which dates to 1792, claims their secret is hidden in a black box at their headquarters in New Hampshire. Their secret formula involves solar science, which studies sunspots; climatology, which examines weather patterns; and meteorology, which focuses on the atmosphere.

The Farmers' Almanac, dating back to 1818, quips "Caleb Weatherbee," a pseudonym for their weather prognosticator, is the only person with the top secret formula. They claim their secret formula involves studying sunspot cycles, solar activity, tidal forces and the reversal of winds in the stratosphere over the equator. They said they make their forecasts two years in advance.

The major difference between the two? The Old Farmer's Almanac uses satellite tracking equipment and the Farmers' Almanac does not.

What is 2024-2025 winter outlook by Old Farmer's Almanac and Farmers' Almanac?

The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a "gentler-than-normal" season with overall temperatures in the Northeast above average. January will be the warmest, with colder periods in mid-December and late February, the publication predicts.

Precipitation and snowfall will be "slightly below normal," with the snowiest periods in early December, mid-February and early March. More details on their forecast can be found on NorthJersey.com's Old Farmer's Almanac winter prediction story.

The Farmers' Almanac also predicts a milder winter, but does say those living north and west of Interstate 95 in New Jersey, may see snow, while others are more apt for sleet and rain.

A coastal storm is expected the first week in December, with another in mid-January and end of January, which is supposed to be "very active," the publication predicts. For more information the Farmers' Almanac's winter outlook, check out the NorthJersey.com story.

Email: lcomstock@njherald.com; Twitter: @LoriComstockNJH or on Facebook.

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Comparing Old Farmer's and Farmers' almanacs 2024 predictions